EUR/CHF’s steep decline last week indicates that rebound from 0.9416 has completed at 0.9683 already, after rejection by 0.9691 cluster resistance. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for retesting 0.9407/16 support zone. Decisive break there will resume larger down trend. On the upside, touching 0.9543 minor resistance will delay the bearish case and turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, rejection by 0.9691 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.0095 to 0.9416 at 0.9675) maintains medium term bearishness in EUR/CHF. Firm break of 0.9047 support (2022 low) will resume long term down trend. Next target will be 61.8% projection of 1.1149 to 0.9407 from 1.0095 at 0.9018. For now, outlook will be neutral at best as long as 0.9683 holds.
In the long term picture, outlook remains bearish as it’s staying well below 55 M EMA (now at 1.0306). Larger down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is in progress to break through 0.9407 low.
