AUD/USD fell to as low as 0.6361 last week as down trend resumed, but recovered since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations first. Upside should be limited by 0.6480 support turned resistance to bring another decline. Break of 0.6361 will resume the fall from 0.6870 to 100% projection of 0.6870 to 0.6442 from 0.6643 at 0.6215.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.6169 (2022 low) are seen as a medium term corrective pattern to the down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Fall from 0.7156 (2023 high) is seen as the second leg, which is still in progress. Overall, sideway trading could continue in range of 0.6169/7156 for some more time. But as long as 0.7156 holds, an eventual downside breakout would be mildly in favor.
In the long term picture, the down trend from 1.1079 (2011 high) should have completed at 0.5506 (2020 low) already. It’s unsure yet whether price actions from 0.5506 are developing into a corrective pattern, or trend reversal. But in either case, fall from 0.8006 is seen the second leg of the pattern. Hence, in case of deeper decline, strong support should emerge above 0.5506 to bring reversal.
