EUR/JPY’s rise from 154.40 resumed last week but a temporary top was then formed at 165.00. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations first. Further rally is expected as long as 161.83 support holds. Above 165.50 will target 61.8% retracement of 175.41 to 154.40 at 167.38. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 175.41 high.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 175.41 are seen as correction to rally from 114.42 (2020 low). The range of consolidation should have been set between 38.2% retracement of 114.42 to 175.41 at 152.11 and 175.41 high. However, decisive break of 152.11 would argue that deeper correction is underway.
In the long term picture, considering bearish divergence condition in W MACD, 175.41 is at least a medium term top. It’s still early to conclude that up trend from 94.11 (2012 low) has completed. But a medium term corrective phase is in progress with risk of deeper fall back to 55 M EMA (now at 146.64).
