USD/CHF’s rally from 0.8374 resumed last week but retreated after hitting 0.9020. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations first. Downside should be contained above 0.8735 support to bring another rally. Above 0.9020 will target 61.8% projection of 0.8374 to 0.8956 from 0.8735 at 0.9095.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.8332 (2023 low) are currently seen as a medium term corrective pattern, with rise from 0.8374 as the third leg. Overall outlook will continue to stay bearish as long as 0.9223 resistance holds. Break of 0.8332 low is in favor at a later stage when the consolidation completes.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low ) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). Fall from 1.0342 (2016 high) is seen as the second leg. Rejection by 55 M EMA suggest that this fall is in progress. Break of 61.8% retracement of 0.7065 to 1.0342 at 0.8317 will pave the way back to 0.7065.
