EUR/AUD’s late break of 1.6481 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.5963 to 1.6800 at 1.6480) suggests that a double top reversal pattern (1.6800, 1.6789) might be completed. Initial bias is back on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement at 1.6283. On the upside, break of 1.6593 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6800 instead.
In the bigger picture, with 1.5996 key support (2024 low) intact, larger up trend from 1.4281 (2022 low) is still in favor to resume through 1.7180 at a later stage. Nevertheless, sustained break of 1.5996 will indicate that such up trend has completed and deeper decline would be seen.
In the longer term picture, rise from 1.4281 is seen as the second leg of the pattern from 1.9799 (2020 high), which is part of the pattern from 2.1127 (2008 high). As long as 55 M EMA (now at 1.6090) holds, this second leg could still extend higher. However, sustained trading below 55 M EMA will open up the bearish case for extending the decline through 1.4281 low.
 suggests that a double top reversal pattern (1.6800, 1.6789) might be completed. Initial bias is back on the downside this week for 61.8% retracement at 1.6283. On the upside, break of 1.6593 minor resistance will turn bias back to the upside for retesting 1.6800 instead.){kind=link}