EUR/CHF’s fall from 0.9660 resumed last week and dived to as low as 0.9361. Initial bias stays on the downside this week for 0.9331 structural support. Firm break there will indicate that whole rally from 0.9204 has completed as a three-wave correction, after rejection by channel resistance. Deeper decline would be seen to retest 0.9204 low next. On the upside, above 0.9473 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, rejection by long-term falling channel resistance (now at 0.9600) will retail medium term bearishness. That is, down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) is still in progress. Downside breakout through 0.9204 low would then be in favor at a later stage.
In the long term picture, bullish signs are emerging. However, the important hurdle at 0.9928 resistance, which is close to 55 M EMA (now at 0.9960), is needed to be taken out decisively before considering long term trend reversal. Otherwise, outlook is neutral at best.
