US Conference Board index jumped from 85.7 to 98.0 in May, far exceeding expectations of 87.1 and marking the first increase in six months. Present Situation Index rose 1.8 pts to 135.9. Expectations Index leapt by 17.4 points to 72.8.
Despite the rebound, the expectations component remains below the key threshold of 80, which historically signals elevated recession risk in the months ahead.
The improvement gained traction after the May 12 announcement of a partial pause on US-China tariffs, though the Conference Board noted the rebound had already begun beforehand.
According to Senior Economist Stephanie Guichard, the uptick was “largely driven by consumer expectations as all three components of the Expectations Index—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income”.
