Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee struck a cautiously optimistic tone Monday, saying that the recent surge in tariffs has not delivered the economic shock many had feared.
Speaking at a mid-year business outlook event in Milwaukee, Goolsbee noted that the fallout so far has been “somewhat surprisingly” modest, particularly in terms of inflation. While uncertainty remains around future price pressures, the current evidence suggests that the economy may still be on a favorable course.
“If we do not see inflation resulting from these tariff increases,” Goolsbee said, “then, in my mind, we never left what I was calling the golden path before April 2.” That path—defined by disinflation without a major slowdown—would support the case for eventual rate cuts.
His remarks echo a growing sentiment within the Fed that policy easing could resume later this year, provided inflation continues to behave and growth risks mount.
