USD/JPY’s rise from 145.47 extended through 149.12 resistance last week. The development confirmed that correction from 150.90 has completed at 145.47 and rise from 139.87 should be resuming. Initial bias stays on the upside for retesting 150.90 first, and break there will 151.22 fibonacci level. On the downside, below 148.89 will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations, before staging another rise.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 (2024 high) are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 158.86 to 139.87 at 151.22 will argue that it has already completed with three waves at 139.87. Larger up trend might then be ready to resume through 161.94 high. In case the corrective pattern extends with another fall, strong support is expected from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound.
In the long term picture, there is no sign that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. But then, firm break of 161.94 is needed to confirm resumption. Otherwise, more medium term range trading could still be seen.
