EUR/USD’s fall from 1.1917 short term top extended to 1.1644 last week, but recovered since again. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Further fall is expected as long as 1.1819 resistance holds. Considering bearish divergence condition in D MACD, sustained trading below 55 D EMA (now at 1.1668) will argue that 1.1917 was already a medium term top. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.1390 support next.
In the bigger picture, rise from 1.0176 (2025 low) is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.9534 (2022 low). 100% projection of 0.9534 to 1.1274 from 1.0176 at 1.1916 was already met. For now, further rally will remain in favor as long as 1.1390 support holds, and firm break of 1.2000 psychological level will carry larger bullish implications. However, firm break of 1.1390 will suggest that rise from 1.0176 has already completed and bring deeper fall to 55 W EMA (now at 1.1231).
In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.
 will argue that 1.1917 was already a medium term top. Deeper fall should then be seen to 1.1390 support next.){kind=link}