Canada’s retail sector weakened in September, with headline sales falling -0.7% mom to CAD 69.8B, in line with expectations. The decline was broad-based, with six of nine subsectors posting decreases, led primarily by motor vehicle and parts dealers. When excluding autos and gasoline, core retail sales were essentially flat. In volume terms, retail sales slid 0.8% mom, marking a clear step down in real consumption.
On a quarterly basis, nominal retail sales eked out a 0.2% gain in Q3, but volumes declined -0.3%, showing that inflation-adjusted spending continues to stagnate.
The advance estimate for October suggests no meaningful improvement, with retail sales expected to be broadly unchanged.
