Market participants are eyeing the US Dollar Index (DXY) as it hovers above the crucial 100.00 barrier. The greenbacks recent rally has been impressive but may fail to gain traction unless acceptance is achieved beyond the 100.00 psychological level.
A break above the 100.00 psychological level is no surprise to market participants as we have seen two forays beyond this handle in recent weeks. Having broken below the 100.00 mark in May of 2025, the DXY has attempted two recoveries prior to the current one.
The result? A significant materialized each time the DXY attempted a push higher beyond the 100.00 mark. Is history set to repeat itself?
From a technical standpoint, the Daily chart below appears to have printed a potential double-top pattern which hints at a deeper pullback.
The 200-day MA rests just below the 100.00 psychological level which could serve as dynamic support if price moves lower.
A break of the 200-day MA would be needed for a deeper correction to take place.
Acceptance above the 100.00 mark may find resistance at 100.61 before the 102.16 handle comes onto focus.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, November 24, 2025
Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)
Macroeconomic Backdrop
This week, which is shorter due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. on Thursday, a lot of attention will be on peace talks concerning Ukraine. Recent reports suggest the U.S. is becoming less supportive of Russia’s maximum demands, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy might travel to Washington later this week for direct talks with U.S. President Donald Trump. While specifics from the current Geneva peace talks are few, the overall mood is tentatively hopeful.
Aside from politics, the U.S. dollar’s performance this week will be largely driven by upcoming U.S. economic data and the release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book report on Wednesday evening. Tomorrow’s retail sales data for September is expected to be strong, but the market is likely more interested in the Beige Book. Any informal information within that report from the Fed’s regions indicating that the recent slowing in job growth is spreading could quickly renew the discussion about a potential Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. This possibility was recently highlighted on Friday by comments from New York Fed President John Williams favoring another December rate cut, which caused the market’s expectation for a December cut to jump back up to 75%. This high probability of a cut leads to the question of why the dollar is not weaker this morning.
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