The focus of the week was U.S. employment data, which came in slightly weaker than expected. Nonfarm payrolls increased by around 50,000 jobs, while October and November figures were revised lower. However, markets paid more attention to the lower-than-expected unemployment rate, which supported the U.S. dollar and helped U.S. equity markets reach new record highs. As a result, expectations shifted toward the next U.S. interest rate cut taking place in April.
In Europe, the EU unemployment rate also came in below expectations, pointing to continued strength in the labor market. At the same time, rising geopolitical risks—linked to developments in Venezuela and Greenland—supported safe-haven demand. Gold remained strong throughout the week as investors looked for protection against growing political uncertainty.
In Japan, political developments also drew attention. Following her recent rise in support, Sanae Takaichi is believed to be considering calling a snap election in mid-February, as the market continued to worry about rising 10-year Japanese government bond yields.
Markets This Week
U.S. Stocks
The Dow has started the year on a positive note, extending last year’s momentum. U.S. employment data was viewed as supportive for equities, and the short-term trend is pointing higher. Buying pullbacks appears to be the preferred strategy for now, as long as prices remain above the 10-day moving average. However, unexpected policy actions from Trump remain a key risk that could disrupt the uptrend. Resistance is seen at 49,500 and 50,000, while support is located at 48,750, 48,000, 47,500, and 47,000.
Japanese Stocks
The Nikkei 225 surged after U.S. employment data boosted U.S. equities and the yen weakened further, pushing the index to fresh record highs. Some profit-taking may appear early in the week, but with the trend remaining strong and the yen staying weak, buying pullbacks continues to look like the preferred strategy. Resistance is seen at 54,000円, 55,000円, and 56,000円, while support is located at 52,500円, 51,500円, and 51,000円.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY returned to the key 158 level after U.S. employment data showed the U.S. economy remains strong. The weak-yen trend continues as concerns over Japan’s long-term debt persist. Volatility may increase this week as markets push higher and watch whether the Bank of Japan intervenes at current levels or waits until 160. For short-term traders, buying pullbacks toward the 10-day moving average or a clear break above 158 may offer opportunities. Resistance is seen at 158, 159, and 160, while support is located at 156, 155, and 154.5.
Gold
Gold remained strong throughout the week as rising geopolitical risks encouraged buyers to return to the market. Increased uncertainty linked to Trump’s activity in Venezuela and discussions around Greenland supported safe-haven demand. With prices now trading close to record highs, the uptrend remains intact and buying pullbacks continues to look like the preferred strategy in the current environment. Resistance is seen at $4,550, $4,600, and $4,700, while support is located at $4,450, $4,400, and $4,350.
Crude Oil
WTI crude tested support near $55 before rebounding and finishing the week close to resistance at $60, supported by ongoing unrest and protests in Iran that could threaten supply from key producers. Technical indicators continue to point to sideways movement, making range trading the preferred approach while prices remain between $55 and $60. However, a further rise in Middle East tensions could trigger a break above $60. Resistance is seen at $60, $65, $66.50, $70, and $75, while support remains at $55 and $50.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin had a strong start to the week as traders positioned for 2026, but selling emerged near the $95,000 resistance level, pushing prices back toward the middle of the range. With equities rallying strongly, Bitcoin underperformed, making for a somewhat disappointing week. In the current environment, range trading continues to look like the preferred strategy. Resistance is seen at $95,000 and $100,000, while support is located at $85,000, $80,000, and $75,000.
This Week’s Focus
- Monday: None
- Tuesday: U.S. CPI and New Home Sales
- Wednesday: Australia Building Approvals, U.S. PPI, Retail Sales and Existing Home Sales
- Thursday: Japan PPI, U.K. GDP, Industrial Production and Trade Balance, E.U. Trade Balance, U.S. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
- Friday: E.U. German CPI, U.S. Industrial Production
It is expected to be a busy week, with the yen and gold near key levels. U.S. inflation and retail sales data may cause market swings, while rising geopolitical tensions are keeping traders active. Markets will also be watching the Bank of Japan closely for any signs of intervention if the yen continues to weaken.
