Tue, Jan 26, 2021 @ 09:41 GMT
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Dollar Relatively Resilient in Strong Risk-on Market, Setting the Base for a Rebound?

Global investors were all in risk seeking mode in the first full week of 2021. That came despite all the headlines of surges in coronavirus infection and death, return to strict lockdowns, chaos in Washington and Joe Biden's certification as US President-Elect. Dollar didn't perform too well but there...

Euro Surges in Quiet Markets, Yen Dives with Nikkei’s Strong Breakout

Euro's rally is a focus in rather quiet markets today. Clearance of no-deal Brexit risk was a positive for the common currency. There's additional boost from rumors that a EU-China investment deal is likely this week. However, we'd like to point out that European Commission formally (in a statement)...

Nikkei hit new 30-yr high, up trend back in force

After a few weeks of consolidation in tight range, Nikkei finally followed strong global risk appetite and staged an upside break out today. It closed up 714 pts, or 2.66%, at 27568.15, a new 30-year high. Next near term target is 100% projection of 16358.19 to 23178.10 from 21710.00...

Nikkei Shone in Global Stock Rally, Sterling Tumbled on Brexit Uncertainty

Vaccine optimism pushed global stocks higher last week, with Nikkei completing the most impressive rally. Commodity currencies ended generally higher as led by New Zealand Dollar. Yen and Dollar ended as the worst performing ones. Though, no key levels were taken out, except in NZD/USD and NZD/JPY. Dollar index...

Vaccine News Solidify Risk On Mode; But Yen Selling Lacks Conviction

News of coronavirus vaccine readiness was the biggest market mover last week, solidifying near term risk-on sentiments. Subsequent price actions in major global indices were clearly corrective looking, setting the stage for further rally. Swiss Franc and Yen ended as the worst performing ones, followed by Canadian Dollar, which...

Japan 225 Index Struggles Below 6-Month High; Slightly Bullish

The Japan 225 index has been in a slightly bullish tendency over the last two-and-half months, hovering above the strong 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The RSI, in the positive territory, is pointing north, while the MACD, above the zero level, is moving horizontally and confirming the recent weak...

JP 225 Index Maintains Horizontal Mode

JP 225 stock index (Cash) appears may prolong its sideways crawl as the price stalled underneath the 22,825 upper bound of the range. Although the price found some footing on the 200-period simple moving average (SMA), the Ichimoku lines, the 50- and 100-period SMAs continue to indicate unclear direction...

JP 225 Index Restores Positive Tone with Bounce off 23.6% Fibonacci

JP 225 stock index (Cash) yesterday bounced off the 21,431 mark, that being the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the up leg from 15,384 to 23,302, resuming the uptrend by climbing above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The Ichimoku lines and the short-term oscillators, although reflecting the recent pullback,...

Investors in Euphoria, Betting on a V-Shaped Recovery

The global financial markets were basically in euphoria last week. Lockdown restrictions continued to be eased. ECB provided more stimulus by expanding the crisis purchase program. Surprised growth in US and Canadian employment in May argue that the worst of coronavirus pandemic is already behind us. More importantly, investors...

JP 225 Index Steadily Gains Ground

JP 225 stock index (Cash) continues to gradually appreciate backed by the positively charged simple moving averages (SMAs). Further fuelling the upward incline, are the Ichimoku lines – though slightly weakened – and the Ichimoku cloud. Glancing at the short-term oscillators, they too reflect some stalling in momentum despite remaining...

Aussie and Yen Ended as Strongest as Conoslidative Markets Remained Indecisive

The unimaginable negative oil price was the biggest head-liner last week. But the impact on other markets were relatively short lived. Canadian Dollar was much bothered for most of the week, but eventually it's just the second worst performing, following Sterling. On the other hand, Australian Dollar ended as...

JP 225 Index Unable to Decisively Close Above 50.0% Fibonacci

JP 225 stock index (Cash) appears mostly flat in the very near-term as it edges sideways into the Ichimoku cloud, capped by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) residing at the 19,779 border, that being the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 24,162 to 15,384. Extra neutral...

JP 225 Index Re-tries to Jump above 50.0% Fibo; Slightly Bullish in Near Term

The JP 225 index stretched its two-month old downside rally to an almost four-year trough of 15,383 before retracing half of the decline.  The MACD seems to be gaining ground towards the zero line, the RSI is still hovering around its 50 neutral mark and the simple moving averages (SMAs) continue to point south, all signaling a more cautious trading...

JP 225 Index Flirts With 20-SMA after Sharp Rebound; Bearish Bias Intact

Japan’s 225 stock index barely surpassed the 2019 support-turned-resistance level of 19,239 as the blue Kijun-sen line stood tall. Nevertheless, it managed to close slightly above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA). The RSI and the Stochastics reflect that downside risks remain in place as the former seems to be...

JP 225 Index’s Decent Extends to More than 3-Year Low

Japan’s 225 stock index (cash) sustains a negative bearing stretching to a thirty-nine-month low of 17,510. The one-month collapse is fortified by the downward sloping 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) and the recent bearish crossover between them. Furthermore, the falling Ichimoku lines boost the negative sentiment with...

JP 225 Index Collapses To 4-Month Low, 200-SMA Acts As Support

Japan's 225 stock index (cash) collapsed on Monday as the coronavirus cases outside China increased, shifting funds towards safe havens. The index dived straight to the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) to 4-month lows, losing nearly 4.0% From Friday's closure. Should the 200-day SMA, which currently stands around the 61.8%...

JP 225 Index Looks for Some Extra Gains in Short-Term

Japan's 225 stock index staged an impressive rally earlier on Wednesday to cross above the Ichimoku cloud and close on top of the 200-period simple moving average (SMA) on the four-hour chart. Technically, there is still some room for improvement as the Stochastics are reversing north again within the overbought...

Japan 225 Index Stalls Ahead Of 14-Month Peak Of 24,162

Japan 225 stock index (cash) has run out of fuel in its second attempt to overtake the 24,186 level – which is the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the pullback from 22,252 to 21,054. The recent stall in the up move can also be seen in the flattening of the...

S&P500 Eyes Record Highs, Nikkei Appears Less Confident

Trade tensions are thawing, Trump and Xi are besties again, allowing risk assets to rally as a result. Still, some appear more bullish than others... The S&P500 has record highs within easy reach and momentum suggests we could test this key milestone over by the end of the week. The...

JP225 Index Slumps to Oversold Area; Key Support Ahead

Japan’s 225 stock index has been unable to clear the heavy resistance around the 50% Fibonacci extension of the long donwleg from 24,472 to 19,239, with the price falling forcefully below its simple moving averages (SMA) and the Ichimoku cloud over the past week. The RSI and the Stochastics suggest...

Nikke100 and USD/JPY – Are The Stock Market and xxx/JPY Ready To Rumble?

Hello traders and welcome back to the US session! USDJPY made a nice bullish daily candlestick and looking on the intraday, we can see a nice five-wave rally, so seems like more upside can be seen after that small three-wave setback, especially if we consider a bullish looking Nikkei since...

Sentiment Sank on Trump’s Political Weaponization of Tariffs

Free fall in major government yields extended, and accelerated last week. Meanwhile, it seemed that stocks investors finally woke up with sharply deteriorating sentiments. Major indices staged steep decline as risk aversion heightened. The first factor being the "ever-present" US-China trade tensions. Hard-line rhetorics from official media blossomed after...

US-China Trade War Escalated, No End in Sight as Principle Differences Remain

US-China trade war was the center of global focus last week. Markets were expecting a deal with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He visited Washington Instead Trump announced to escalate to full-blown level after China reneged on its commitments during the negotiations. Trump's decision was understandable even though it may...

Nikkei’s Break To New Highs Puts USD/JPY On The Radar

Renewed trade optimism and strong earnings from the US on Friday has seen Asia shares break broadly higher today, with the Nikkei 225 trading at its highest level since early December. We can see on the Nikkei 225 futures market that the trend structure is increasingly bullish, and today’s...

Elliott Wave View: Nikkei Still Missing Wave 5

Short Term Elliott Wave view on Nikkei Futures suggests the pullback to 20704 ended wave (2). The Index then resumed higher in wave (3) which ended at 21985. The internal of wave (3) subdivided as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 20704, wave 1 ended at 21415, wave...

Risk Aversion to Come Back in Q2 as Stocks and Yields Recouple

Intensifying recession fear was the main theme in the markets in March, alongside never-ending Brexit and trade tensions. With downside risks to growth starting to materialize, major global central banks started their dovish turns. Most notably, Fed now forecasts no rate hike this year. ECB will keep interest rates...

Sentiments Turned Sour on Slowdown Worries, But No Panic Button Hit Yet

Looking through all the financial market news last week, the message was rather unified. That is, 2019 will be a year of slowdown, globally. Economic data, central banks, governments and independent organizations are all reinforcing this message. While ECB's "pre-emptive" dovish turn triggered wild market reactions, it was just...

Japan 225 Stock Index Stands Tall at 9-Week Highs

Japan’s 225 stock index has staged a 5% rise over the past two weeks to jump above the Ichimoku cloud and reach a nine-week high of 21,554 today. The MACD keeps stretching higher and above its red signal line, spreading hopes that there are more gains in store. The...

Dollar Emerged as Strongest in a Bad Batch on Global Slowdown Worries

Dollar ended last week as the strongest ones, mainly due to weakness elsewhere. Worries of global slowdown, or even recession, sent Germany and Japanese stocks sharply lower. Global treasury yields also tumbled on safe haven demand. Adding to that, renewed concern over re-escalation of US-China trade war also weighed...

Stock Markets Correcting 10-Year Up Trend But Fed’s Not to Blame

The global stock markets just turned from bad to worse last week. DOW suffered its worst week since the global financial crisis back in 2008, down the week by nearly -7%. S&P 500, down the month by -11.4%, is also on track to have its worst week since 1931,...