AUD/USD’s up trend from 0.5913 resumed last week and accelerated higher. Initial bias stays on the upside this week for 61.8% projection of 0.5913 to 0.6706 from 0.6420 at 0.6910. Firm break there will pave the way to 100% projection at 0.7213. On the downside, below 0.6833 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations first. But downside of retreat should be contained well above 0.6667 support to bring another rally.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 0.5913 (2024 low) is reversing whole down trend from 0.8006 (2021 high). Further rally should be seen to 61.8% retracement of 0.8006 to 0.5913 at 0.7206. This will remain the favored case as long as 0.6420 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.
In the long term picture, rise from 0.5913 is tentatively seen as the third leg of the pattern from 0.5506 (2020 low). Sustained trading above 55 M EMA (now at 0.6711) will solidify this medium term bullish case. It’s still early to judge if this is an impulsive or corrective pattern. But in either case, firm break of 0.6941 will open up further rise back to 0.8006.
