The weakness of the US dollar amid the White House’s ambiguous policy stance, along with other factors (including geopolitics and industrial demand for silver), has led to the XAG/USD quote rising above $115 this week.
Since the beginning of the year, the price of an ounce of silver has increased by more than 50%, continuing the steep upward trend that began back in 2025.
It seems the bull market in precious metals is unstoppable, but the chart is sending important signals that cast doubt on this view.
Technical Analysis of the XAG/USD Chart
Price fluctuations are forming a broad ascending channel. Pay attention to the following:
→ A surge in volatility, clearly visible on the ATR indicator. It began to form after the psychological level of $100 was breached.
→ A sharp drop from A to B (approximately 12% within a single day) from the upper boundary of the channel to its median. Ordinary retail traders do not have the power to generate such an effect.
Given the above, it is reasonable to assume that after silver surpassed the psychological level of $100 per ounce, demand took on a frenzy-like character. Meanwhile, “smart money” is using the broad market to take profits on long positions after a staggering rise (more than +200% over the past six months). In other words, this points to a distribution phase in terms of Richard Wyckoff’s method.
If false bullish breakouts of resistance levels appear on the chart, followed by successful breaks of support, this will add weight to the argument behind the idea outlined above.
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