- USD/JPY is experiencing significant pressure, trading below the 100-day MA near 152.800.
- The Yen’s unexpected rally is due to political clarity/responsible fiscal policy post-election and speculative short-covering.
- A brief positive reaction in the US dollar following the jobs report is being tested, with pressure on the Fed to act on high rates.
- Attention turns to initial jobless claims and the US CPI release on Friday.
USD/JPY is experiencing significant downward pressure with prices pushing down to a daily low at 152.800. The pair is now trading below the 100-day MA but is more downside still a possibility?
Reasons for the move
Post-Election Yen strength
The Yen has defied expectations of weakness following Prime Minister Takaichi’s landslide election victory.
- Fiscal Clarity: Instead of the feared “fiscal dove” sell-off, the market responded positively to the political clarity and Takaichi’s “responsible fiscal policy” (noting she would not use debt to fund tax cuts).
- Short Covering: Speculators who were “short” on the Yen (betting against it) are aggressively unwinding their positions, creating a “squeeze” that has pushed the Yen higher against both the USD and EUR.
Performance of the US dollar
The US Dollars recent performance has aided the Yen’s rise but a brief bout of US dollar positivity came about after the US jobs report today.
The question now is whether the US dollar can build on this momentum or is it just another short-term knee-jerk reaction? The immediate reaction saw rate cut expectations for the US pushed back to July but with President Donald Trump just yesterday taking aim at high rates once more, there is pressure on incoming Fed Chair Warsh to act.
If the Dollar index extends its recovery, USD/JPY may rise once more and could break back above the 100-day MA.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Daily Chart, February 11, 2026
Source: TradingView
Economic data and potential catalysts ahead
The major data release left for this week will come from the US this week.
Later today we have some Fed speakers on deck before attention turns toward tomorrow’s release of initial jobless claims.
The week will come to an end with the US CPI release on Friday which could solidify the recent changes to rate cut expectations.
For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar.
Technical Analysis – USD/JPY
From a technical standpoint, USD/JPY is currently trading below the 100-day MA.
There is concern that USD bulls may be returning and this could hamper the Yens current rally.
The period-14 RSI though remains below the 50 neutral level which hints at bearish momentum remaining in play.
Short-term traders may be looking for rallies toward 154.00 to sell, targeting a move toward the 152.00–152.10 support zone.
USD/JPY Daily Chart, February 11, 2026
Source: TradingView (click to enlarge)
Support
- 153.40
- 152.21
- 151.53
Resistance
- 154.48 (100-day MA)
- 155.00
- 156.27 (50-day MA)
