The Fed is keeping rates unchanged at the 3.50% to 3.75% range – The stance was surprisingly not so hawkish!
The votes for the pause are at 11-1 – Only Miran dissented.
The rougher part for Markets is the fact that rates are not priced to move much throughout the year.
You can get access to the detailed report and Fed Statement right here.
The Statement made mentions to uncertainty regarding the situation in the Middle East, a solid US economy and low Job gains but stable Unemployment rate.
Regarding inflation, the Fed’s stance wasn’t so hawkish compared to what it could have been.
Notable quotes from the Statement – Source: Federal Reserve
Dot Plot
March Meeting Projections– Source: Federal Reserve
The Fed projected a slightly more elevated inflation in 2026, with the War affecting expectations.
For the rest, the FOMC is not expecting much change in the Unemployment Rate – This opens the way for dovish repricing in the event of large misses in NFP.
Get access to the full SEP report here.
March Meeting Dot Plot – Source: Federal Reserve
The Dot Plot has largely restrained around the 3.5% to 4% range for 2026, indicating that Rate cuts are really far gone.
Only material changes to Employment or economic performance will bring changes to such pricing.
Pre-Conference Asset Board – Courtesy of Finviz
Except for WTI which corrected strongly, the Market is stuck in the waiting for Powell.
Powell is coming up in less than 15 Minutes – You can access his live speech right here.
Market Reactions
Dollar is higher but stalls its ascent
US Dollar (DXY) 15M Chart – Source: TradingView – January 28, 2026
US Stocks wicked higher but are staying flat
Dow Jones (CFD) 15m Chart – Source: TradingView
Gold is correcting from its record highs
Gold (CFD) 15m Chart – Source: TradingView
Other metals are also staying flat/correcting slightly
Bitcoin and Cryptos are remaining flat
Keep a close eye on post-speech flows which can be quite sudden – This session’s close in Stock Market will be of huge importance.
Safe Trades and Good luck for Powell!
