Markets Weigh De-Escalation Efforts Pushing Brent Crude Below USD100/bbl

In focus today

In Sweden, the Riksbank minutes will be published today. A lot has happened since the meeting last week, but it will be interesting to see how the Riksbank members themselves view the risks ahead and whether they express any individual assessments about when it might be time to act. It is also Göra Hjelm’s first meeting. The NIER survey for March is also published. It is worth noting that it data was collected at the beginning of the month and does not capture recent events.

In Germany, the March Ifo survey is due and should offer further insight into preliminary growth and price effects from the war in Iran. Yesterday’s PMI readings showed weaker-than-expected services, while manufacturing outperformed. In manufacturing, both new orders and output rose, a positive signal for the sector, but the decline in services and a sharp rise in manufacturing input prices remain concerning.

In the UK, February inflation will be published. The UK has been on a promising disinflationary trend, but February data is old news. It will take time before we get more clarity and the Bank of England can decide on its next move.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

Overnight, the oil market was caught between escalating and de-escalating developments in the Middle East conflict. The market went with the latter, sending oil prices lower and Brent crude below USD100/bbl. We expect the market to stay nervous near-term and could easily see oil prices bounce higher again. The Trump administration proposed a 15-point peace plan to Iran via Pakistan, which offered to mediate talks. At the same time, the Pentagon sent 2,000 paratroopers to the area, adding to 4,500 Marines already en route and 50,000 troops stationed near Iran. Additionally, Iran informed the UN that “non-hostile” ships, excluding those linked to the US or Israel, may pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

In Japan, minutes from the Bank of Japan’s January meeting revealed a hawkish stance, with many policymakers supporting further rate hikes to address inflationary pressures. Members also highlighted concerns over the weak yen’s impact on prices. We expect the next rate hike from the BoJ in April, but much hinges on spring wage negotiations and of course energy prices.

What happened yesterday

In the euro area, the flash composite PMI fell more than expected in March to 50.5 (prior: 51.9), driven by a sharp drop in services to 50.1 (prior: 51.9). Manufacturing rose to 51.4 (prior: 50.8) but this was largely driven by longer delivery times amid supply distortions from the war in Iran. Manufacturing input prices surged to their highest level since September 2022, signalling a surge in cost, while output prices showed a muted increase. The print highlights the ECBs dilemma of balancing weaker growth and rising inflation, with communication so far focusing on inflation risks, reflecting a hawkish bias.

In the US, flash PMIs signalled steady demand and higher prices, mirroring trends in the euro area. Manufacturing came in surprisingly strong at 52.4 (prior: 51.6) driven by higher new orders (both domestic and exports), while services remained stable at 51.1 (prior: 51.7). Input and output subindices rose in both sectors, so far showing no clear signs of demand weakening from the energy shock.

In the UK, the flash composite PMI fell sharply to 51.0 in March (prior: 53.7), driven by slower growth in services at 51.2 (prior: 53.9) and manufacturing output at 50.1 (prior: 52.5). Supply chain disruptions from the Middle East conflict and surging energy prices pushed input costs higher and weakened demand, highlighting the Bank of England’s challenge in balancing growth and inflation risks.

In Denmark, as indicated by polls, the general elections produced a complicated result with 12 parties in parliament and the biggest party (the Social Democrats) getting just 21.9% of the vote. The current centrist government lost its majority by a wide margin, and negotiations to form a new government are likely to be complicated and protracted. Fiscal policy as it stands will add around 0.5% of GDP to demand this year, and judging by the election campaign, negotiations might well result in modest further easing to mitigate the effect of higher energy prices. As with previous elections, this one should not trigger a market reaction. There continues to be fairly broad agreement around the fiscal framework, even if there is disagreement on how to prioritise within it.

In Hungary, the central bank held its rate at 6.25%, citing inflation risks from surging energy prices amid the Iranian conflict. The bank emphasised the importance of FX stability, maintaining tight monetary conditions to anchor inflation expectations and ensure financial stability.

Equities: Equity futures are higher this morning following reports that the US has sent a 15‑point plan to Iran aimed at ending the war. However, rumours of land troops hold investors from buying too much into this. Hence, futures are up only 0.5-1% this morning. What matters for equity markets is whether Hormuz will reopen in a potential ceasefire.

This followed a weaker session yesterday. AI disruption fears returned to the market as Anthropic announced that they are trialling a feature that lets users send prompts to Claude from their smartphone. Claude will then complete the task on its own on the user’s computer. Tech, communication and real estate sold off. Cyclical appetite was solid, however, with materials and industrials faring relatively well.

FI and FX: Anxious, yet steady FX and FI markets yesterday. Energy prices remained elevated, with the price of Brent crude holding above the USD100/bbl before news that the US is working diplomacy to end the conflict which sent the price below USD100/bbl. NOK rebounded and rose together with the USD and EUR. EUR/USD traded around the 1.16 level. Upwards pressure on short-term interest rates, in particular on the EUR market, persisted amid more hawkish comments from ECB officials.