- GBP/JPY’s month‑long sustained upside meets strong resistance.
- Momentum signals reflect signs of bullish exhaustion.
GBP/JPY’s steady ascent within a month‑long upward‑sloping channel is showing signs of stabilisation, with price action repeatedly meeting strong resistance near the upper Bollinger band at 213.30.
The broader bias remains bullish as the pair continues to trade above the long‑term rising support trendline drawn from the April lows. However, the failure to breach the strong resistance area tracking monthly‑highs, combined with softening technical indicators – with the MACD, RSI, and stochastics flattening in positive territory –strengthens the case for a potential bearish correction.
Such a correction would likely materialise if price action breaks below the 20‑ and 50‑day simple moving averages (SMAs) near 212.00-211.20 and breaches the trendline, opening the way toward weekly lows near 210.75. A break there could accelerate declines toward the monthly low near 209.15.
Conversely, a decisive move above 213.30 could target the February highs near 214.20, then 215.00, and ultimately the multi‑year peak near 215.78, tracking the July 20, 2008 high.
All in all, GBP/JPY remains bullish but has so far failed to extend gains back toward the multi‑year highs at the year‑to‑date peak of 215.00, with repeated attempts hitting a wall. The momentum indicators show neither buyers nor sellers firmly in control, suggesting consolidation for now – a backdrop that keeps downside risks contained.
