EUR/JPY’s steep decline last week indicates medium term topping at 187.93, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. But a temporary low should be formed at 182.28. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Risk will stay on the downside as long as 55 4H EMA (now at 186.00) holds. Below 182.28 will extend the fall from 187.93 to 180.78 support.
In the bigger picture, the pullback from 187.93 is steep, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 177.53) will argue that it’s already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA (now at 177.53) holds.
 holds. Below 182.28 will extend the fall from 187.93 to 180.78 support.){kind=link}