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Chart 1 shows market expectations for a Bank of Canada hike by the end of 2026. At the onset of the U.S.-Iran conflict, markets priced in nearly three 25 bps hikes by the end of the year. As of June 11th, markets reeled back expectation, now anticipating one 25 bps hike by year-end. TD Economics forecasts that the policy rate will remain unchanged at 2.25% for the remainder of the year.
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