The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Persian Gulf following the announcement of a ceasefire between the US and Iran on 14 June remains the main factor weighing on the oil market in recent days. Market participants are increasingly pricing in a scenario of a resumption of full-scale supplies through the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. This has led to a significant reduction in the geopolitical risk premium that previously supported prices at relatively elevated levels. In addition, expectations of higher supply from major producers are prompting profit-taking on long positions accumulated during the previous rally.
Technical Picture
The medium-term uptrend in XBRUSD, which had been forming on the D1 timeframe since mid-December 2025, was broken on 25 May following a downside gap. After this, the price broke below the lower boundary of the market profile and significantly accelerated its downward movement. If the momentum continues at the same pace, the green support around $70,000 could act as the next downside reference point. In the event of a corrective rebound, two major obstacles would be the lower boundary of the profile at $95,100 and the point of control (POC) zone at $103,600–$104,000. The red resistance level at $120,500 may come into play if prices rise above the upper boundary of the profile at $113,000.
RSI + MAs shows readings of 28, 38 and 43. The moving averages are coloured red, while the RSI curve has entered oversold territory. This configuration suggests that in the near term the market may remain in a state of heightened uncertainty, with volatility likely to increase significantly. Vertical volume has not yet shown any notable anomalies.
Key Takeaways
The current market structure indicates a prevailing downside bias following the break of the medium-term uptrend. Against the backdrop of expectations of additional oil supply returning to the market, this technical picture adds to short-term uncertainty.
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