EUR/AUD’s break of 1.6453 suggests that pullback from 1.6516 has completed at 1.6306. More importantly, rise from 1.6108 is still in progress. Intraday bias is back on the upside, firm break of 1.6516 will target 1.6842 resistance. For now, risk will stay mildly on the upside as long as 1.6306 support holds.
In the bigger picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 1.6842 resistance holds. Fall from 1.8554 (2025 high) is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 1.4281 to 1.8554 at 1.5913. Decisive break there will pave the way back to 1.4281 (2022 low). However, firm break of 1.6842 should confirm medium term bottoming, and bring stronger rally.
