Asia Open: Micron Earnings Beat Sparks Global Semiconductor Rally, USD Remains Firm

Key takeaways

• Micron’s blockbuster earnings have reaffirmed that AI memory demand remains exceptionally strong. Record quarterly revenue, a substantial earnings beat, and robust guidance reinforce the view that high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and AI data centre spending remain supply-constrained despite broader macro uncertainty.
• The AI investment cycle has regained momentum after a sharp valuation reset. Micron’s results suggest the recent semiconductor selloff was driven more by positioning and valuation concerns than by deteriorating AI fundamentals, triggering a broad recovery across global chip stocks.
• Falling oil prices continue to improve the macro backdrop for growth assets. The continued unwinding of the Middle East geopolitical risk premium is easing inflation concerns and reducing input costs, partially offsetting the headwind from higher-for-longer interest rates.
• Attention now shifts to US Core PCE inflation. While Micron has significantly improved sentiment toward AI equities, today’s inflation data remains the key macro catalyst determining whether Treasury yields and the US dollar will continue to cap further upside in technology stocks.
• Chart of the day: WTI crude bearish breakdown below the 200-day moving average, with further potential short-term weakness ahead, below $75.25, a key short-term resistance level.

Chart of the day – WTI crude bearish breakdown below key 200-day MA

Fig. 1: West Texas Oil CFD minor trend as of 25 Jun 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.

The ongoing 4-week weakness in the price action of the West Texas Oil CFD (a proxy for WTI crude oil futures) since the 18 May 2025 high of $109.74/bbl culminated in a bearish breakdown of its key 200-day moving average on Wednesday, 24 June 2026.

The further deterioration in the technical structure of the West Texas Oil CFD reinforces at least a near-term weakness in oil prices.

Watch the $75.25/bbl key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential further drop, exposing the next intermediate supports at $67.40/66.10 and $63.80 (see Fig. 1).

However, a clearance above $75.25 invalidates the bearish scenario, opening the door to a minor corrective rebound towards the next intermediate resistances at $77.39 and $79.23/80.75.

Top macro headlines

• Micron smashes estimates with blockbuster Q3 results and bullish AI outlook: Micron Technology Inc. delivered a monumental fiscal third-quarter earnings beat after the close. Driven by insatiable generative AI demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and data-centre DRAM, the chipmaker guided Q4 revenues to an unprecedented $50 billion (plus or minus $1 billion), sending its stock soaring over 15% in extended trading and reinflating the broader tech complex, in turn, triggering a recovery of 1.5% on the Nasdaq 100 E-mini futures in today’s Asian session.
• Wall Street Finished mixed in the regular session before an after-hours tech surge: Before Micron’s earnings release, major U.S. indexes exhibited highly fragmented behaviour as investors balanced stretched megacap tech multiples against cyclical value plays. The S&P 500 closed down a minor 0.1% to settle at 7,358, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 slid 0.4% to finish at 29,220. Conversely, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 182.06 points (0.4%) to close at 51,854, supported by rotation into financials and homebuilders.
• Crude slumps beneath $78 as Strait of Hormuz transit normalisation deepens: Energy futures contracts extended their downward path as maritime shipping telemetry confirmed that commercial vessels have normalised transits through the Persian Gulf bottleneck. The formal operationalisation of the US-Iran 60-day roadmap and associated temporary petroleum export waivers triggered broad systemic liquidations of long hedges, pushing front-month Brent futures toward $73.38/bbl (-4.8%) and WTI to settle at $69.87/bbl (-4.4%), unwinding the structural war premium.
• Gold slumps 2.7% to test psychological floors amid aggressive yield pressures: Spot gold experienced a sharp rout, declining 2.7% to settle a whisker below the key $4,000/oz psychological level at $3,999/oz on Wednesday, 24 June. The metal faced persistent liquidation pressure on its asset portfolios, with capital reallocated from yielding safe havens into nominal-yielding assets ahead of the highly anticipated US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index release later today.

Key macro themes

• The structural separation of core AI demand from broad cyclical pressures: Micron Technology’s historic earnings and revenue print demonstrates a profound structural bifurcation within global capital expenditure. While traditional industrial proxies like FedEx are flashing signals of slowing global trade volumes and corporate margin compression, physical layer AI infrastructure remains entirely insulated. Because top-tier hyperscalers are fully booking advanced HBM nodes throughout calendar year 2027, chip demand behaves independently of baseline macroeconomic cycles, validating the multi-trillion-dollar valuation expansion across specialised hardware nodes.
• The transience of geopolitical risk premiums in commodity markets: The continued decline in international energy benchmarks underscores how quickly systemic trend-following funds will withdraw once physical supply paths normalise. The implementation of the US-Iran temporary waiver has converted localised anxieties about maritime scarcity into an immediate prompt-market inventory buffer. As crude contracts trade out of their war premium, the broader macro outlook gains an implicit shield against supply-side inflation, offsetting hawkish central bank liabilities.
• Intraday multiple compression followed by high-beta volatility release: The sharp regular-session profit-taking across Wall Street growth names, followed by Micron’s explosive 15% after-hours rally, illustrates the extreme sensitivity of modern financial markets to real-time information flow. Operating under a higher-for-longer baseline cost of capital, public equity indices are intensely compressing multiples during regular cash hours whenever concrete forward-looking data is absent. However, once a key structural anchor delivers a clean, undeniable demand beat, institutional capital rapidly re-enters high-beta growth ecosystems, compressing short positioning.

Global markets impact (last 24 hours)

Equities: Regular-session trading saw the S&P 500 edge down 0.1% and the Nasdaq-100 drop 0.4%. However, Micron’s massive post-market Q3 beat sent its shares up 15% to $1,213 in after-hours trading, triggering a wave of buying that lifted major semiconductor and hardware indices across the Asia-Pacific region. The Dow Jones (DJIA) added 0.4% during cash hours. The E-mini futures of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 rebounded by 0.4% and 1.6% in today’s Asian session.

Fixed Income: Global bond curves experienced minor stabilisation. The short-duration US 2-year Treasury yield fluctuated near 4.15% while the benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield consolidated around 4.40%. Portfolios maintained a steady posture, adjusting for the upcoming sovereign note supply and highly anticipated US PCE inflation data out later today.

FX: The US Dollar Index (DXY) maintained its bullish tone, extending its gains by 0.2% to settle at 101.36, a 13-month high on Wednesday, 26 June. In the past 24 hours, the Australian and New Zealand dollars have been the weakest among the major currencies, dropping by 0.1% and 0.2% against the greenback to trade at 0.6893 and 0.5641 in today’s Asian session.

Commodities: Front-month Brent crude futures fell to $73.38/bbl as the normalisation of the Gulf shipping transit normalised localised risk premiums. In today’s Asian session, it extended its losses by 1.3% to $72.88/bbl, its lowest level since early March 2026.

Spot gold prices remained soft and extending its decline by 0.4% in today’s Asian session to trade at $3,981/oz intraday, a 7-month low, driven by capital shifting away from non-yielding hedges toward higher-yielding alternatives.

Asia Pacific impact

• Asian tech centres positioned for substantial rebound on Micron: The explosive after-hours performance of Micron is set to trigger intensive upward tracking across North Asian electronics centres. South Korea’s chip heavyweights Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, alongside Taiwan’s semiconductor giants, face significant upside momentum as the verified revenue records ease concerns about localised AI hardware spending limits. South Korea’s KOSPI (+6%), Taiwan’s TAIEX (+1%), Japan’s Nikkei 225 (+3.7%), China’s CSI 300 (+0.7%), Singapore’s STI (+0.2%). In contrast, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index (-1.1%) and Australia’s ASX 200 (-0.1%) underperformed.
• Yen consolidates extensively near multi-decade intervention floor: The Japanese yen remains under intense pressure against the greenback, pinning USD/JPY near 161.70, below a key major resistance at 161.95. Wide interest rate differentials continue to favour the US dollar, keeping Bank of Japan policy authorities highly vigilant for localised measures to smooth volatility if speculative yen dumping accelerates.
• Regional importers absorb lower near-term input energy outlays: Energy-dependent bourses across the APAC region continue to capture real-time current-account benefits from the downward trend in Brent crude prices, lowering input costs for raw manufacturing materials and softening the immediate impact of local currency depreciation against the broad-based strength of the US dollar.

Top 3 economic releases/events to watch today

1. Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Jul) – 2:00 pm SGT (consensus: -27.6, Jun: -29.8) Impact: EUR/USD, EUR crosses, DAX
2. US Core PCE Inflation Index (May) – 8:30 pm (SGT) (consensus: 3.4% y/y, Apr: 3.3% y/y) Impact: All asset classes
3. Fed Speak (Williams) – Friday, 3:40 am (SGT) Impact: USD, shorter-term US Treasuries, US stock indices