The US dollar continues to hold firm near multi-year highs as sentiment across equity markets deteriorates and investors increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance for longer. The US economy remains resilient, while inflation risks continue to run elevated, prompting market participants to reassess the timing of potential interest rate cuts. Against this backdrop, demand for the dollar is being supported both by attractive US asset yields and its status as a safe-haven currency.
An additional source of support for the greenback has come from the decline in stock markets, which has increased investor caution and encouraged capital flows into the dollar. Despite some easing in geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and a correction in oil prices, expectations of a more hawkish Fed remain the key market driver. Interest-rate futures continue to reflect a high probability that restrictive policy will remain in place for an extended period, supporting the dollar against most major currencies.
USD/JPY
USD/JPY continues to advance and is trading close to multi-year highs near 162.00. Pressure on the yen persists due to the wide interest-rate differential between the United States and Japan, as well as market doubts about the willingness of Japanese authorities to carry out further currency interventions. Technical analysis suggests the pair could extend its advance towards the psychological 163.00–164.00 area.
At the same time, a spike in volatility and a sharp pullback towards 160.00–161.00 cannot be ruled out, as the pair is already trading within a zone of long-term resistance on higher timeframes.
Key events for USD/JPY:
- Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index;
- Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US GDP data;
- Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Continuing Jobless Claims in the United States.
USD/CAD
USD/CAD also remains in an uptrend and is approaching long-term resistance levels in the 1.4300–1.4350 area. The pair is being supported by US dollar strength and the relative weakness of the Canadian dollar amid lower oil prices and expectations of further divergence between Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve policy.
A sustained move above 1.4300 could open the way for further gains towards 1.4350. However, a rejection from these levels and the formation of bearish reversal patterns could trigger a corrective decline towards the 1.4140–1.4200 region.
Key events for USD/CAD:
- Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Average Weekly Earnings in Canada;
- Today at 15:45 (GMT+3): speech by Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member Michelle Bowman;
- Today at 17:00 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate.
The US dollar remains the primary beneficiary of the current market environment. Equity market weakness, expectations of a prolonged period of restrictive Fed policy and the relative weakness of competing currencies continue to support the greenback.
At the same time, both USD/JPY and USD/CAD are approaching significant long-term resistance levels. As a result, further price action is likely to depend on whether upcoming macroeconomic data can confirm the resilience of the US economy and whether the Federal Reserve maintains its hawkish tone in forthcoming commentary.
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