EUR/JPY stayed in range of 183.14/186.30 last week. Initial bias remains neutral this week first. Risk will stay mildly on the downside as long as 186.30 holds. Below 183.14 will target 182.10 support next. Nevertheless, break of 186.30 will extend the rebound from 182.10 towards 187.93 high.
In the bigger picture, there is no sign of reversal yet. Uptrend from 114.42 (2020 low) is still expected to resume at a later stage to 78.6% projection of 124.37 (2022 low) to 175.41 (2025 high) from 154.77 at 194.88. However, sustained break of 55 W EMA (now at 179.55) will argue that it’s already in a medium term down trend to 175.41 resistance turned support and below.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 55 W EMA holds.
