Canada’s economy expanded 0.3% month-over-month in May, beating expectations of 0.2% and marking a second consecutive monthly increase. Growth was broad-based, with 13 of 20 industrial sectors posting gains as both goods-producing and services-producing industries contributed to the expansion. Statistics Canada also estimated that real GDP rose a further 0.2% in June, pointing to annualized growth of 0.8% for the second quarter based on industry data.
The goods-producing sector led the way with a 0.6% increase in May, supported by widespread gains across most industries. Mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction advanced 1.0%, extending April’s recovery as two of its three subsectors posted a second straight monthly increase. Manufacturing also grew 0.3%, with most subsectors expanding during the month. On the services side, output rose 0.2%, driven primarily by gains in real estate and rental and leasing as well as public administration. Real estate activity increased 0.4%, with all subsectors contributing to the advance.
The latest figures suggest the Canadian economy maintained solid momentum through the second quarter despite an uncertain external backdrop. The advance estimate for June indicates growth remained supported by wholesale trade, finance and insurance, and retail trade, although weaker utilities and agriculture partially offset those gains. With domestic activity continuing to broaden across both goods and services sectors, the data point to an economy that has proved more resilient than expected heading into the second half of the year.
Economic Data Summary
| Indicator | Actual | Expected | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP M/M (May) | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| GDP M/M (June Advance) | 0.2% | — | — |
| Q2 2026 GDP (Industry-Based Estimate) | 0.8% | — | — |
Sector Breakdown
| Component | Current | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Goods-producing industries | 0.6% | ↑ Broad-based growth |
| Services-producing industries | 0.2% | ↑ Continued expansion |
| Mining, quarrying & oil and gas | 1.0% | ↑ Second consecutive gain |
| Manufacturing | 0.3% | ↑ Majority of subsectors higher |
| Real estate & rental and leasing | 0.4% | ↑ Broad-based gains |
Key Takeaways
- Canada’s economy outperformed expectations in May. Real GDP rose 0.3% month-over-month, beating the 0.2% consensus forecast and marking a second consecutive monthly increase.
- Growth was broad-based. Thirteen of twenty industrial sectors expanded, with both goods-producing and services-producing industries contributing to the overall gain.
- Goods production led the expansion. Goods-producing industries grew 0.6%, supported by stronger mining, oil and gas extraction, and manufacturing output.
- Mining and energy remained key drivers. The mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction sector increased 1.0%, posting a second straight monthly gain.
- Services continued to provide support. Services-producing industries rose 0.2%, led by real estate and rental and leasing (0.4%) together with public administration.
- June appears to have maintained the momentum. Statistics Canada’s advance estimate points to another 0.2% increase in June, driven by wholesale trade, finance and insurance, and retail trade.
- Second-quarter growth looks solid. Based on May data and the June advance estimate, real GDP by industry is on track to have expanded 0.8% in Q2, suggesting the Canadian economy entered the second half of the year with steady momentum.
