EUR/CHF’s rally resumed last week but lost momentum again after hitting 0.9371. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for consolidations. Outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.9270 support holds. On the upside decisive break of 100% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9379 will carry larger bullish implications, and target 138.2% projection at 0.9488.
In the bigger picture, considering bullish divergence condition in W MACD, rise from 0.8979 medium term bottom should at least be reversing the fall from 0.9928, with prospect of developing into a medium term up trend. Firm break of 0.9394 resistance will add more credence to this case. For now risk will remain on the upside as long as 0.9094 support holds, in case of retreat.
In the long term picture, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.9407 support turned resistance (2022 low) holds. However, firm break of 0.9407 will argue that the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has completed with five waves down to 0.8979. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 0.8979 at 1.0135 in the medium term.
