EUR/USD’s rally from 1.1323 extended further to 1.1710 last week but turned sideway since then. Initial bias is turned neutral this week for some consolidations. Downside should be contained by 1.1565 support to bring another rally. On the upside, above 1.1710 will target 61.8% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1323 at 1.1791 next. Firm break there will bring retest of 1.2081 high.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that fall from 1.2081 was a corrective pattern which has completed at 1.1323, after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. Firm break of 1.2081 will resume whole up trend from 1.1716. This will now remain the favored case as long as 55 D EMA (now at 1.1520) holds, in case of retreat.
In the long term picture, 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019, which is close to 1.2000 psychological level is the key for the outlook. Rejection by this level will keep the multi decade down trend from 1.6039 (2008 high) intact, and keep outlook neutral at best. However, decisive break of 1.2000/19, will suggest long term bullish trend reversal, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.
