EUR/CHF’s rally from 0.8979 resumed last week but retreated after hitting 0.9434. Initial bias remains neutral this week for consolidations. Further rise is expected as long as 0.9304 support holds. Above 0.9434 will target 161.8% projection of 0.8979 to 0.9264 from 0.9094 at 0.9555.
In the bigger picture, the break of 0.9394 resistance should confirm that rise from 0.8979 medium term bottom is at least reversing the fall from 0.9928 (2024 high), with prospect of developing into a medium term up trend. Further rally should be seen to 0.9660 resistance next. This will now remain the favored case as long as 0.9264 resistance turned support holds.
In the long term picture, focus remains on 0.9407 support turned resistance (2022 low). Sustained break there will argue that the down trend from 1.2004 (2018 high) has completed with five waves down to 0.8979. Stronger rebound should then be seen to 38.2% retracement of 1.2004 to 0.8979 at 1.0135 in the medium term.
