EUR/JPY fell sharply last week and there is no clear sign of bottoming yet. Initial bias stays on the downside this week first. Fall from 186.00 is seen as another leg in the corrective pattern from 187.93 high. Deeper decline should be seen to 179.34 support and possibly below. On the upside, above 181.94 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 187.93 are likely at least correcting whole up trend from 154.77 (2025 low). Deeper fall could be seen to 175.41 cluster support (2025 high) and 38.2% retracement of 154.77 to 187.93 at 175.26 before completion. For now, risk will stay on the downside as long as 186.00 resistance holds, in case of rebound.
In the long term picture, up trend from 94.11 (2021 low) is in progress. Next target is 138.2% projection of 94.11 to 149.76 (2014 high) from 114.42 (2020 low) at 191.32. This will remain the favored case as long 175.41 resistance turned support holds.
