USD/CHF edged higher to 0.8156 last week but retreated since then. After all, it’s bounded in range of 0.7948/8205 despite the volatility. Initial bias is turned neutral this week first. Rise from 0.7603 should still be in progress, and firm break of 0.8205 will confirm resumption. Nevertheless, break of 0.7948 will dampen this bullish view.
In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8213. Decisive break there will indicate that USD/CHF is at least reversing the medium term trend, and turn focus to 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation. Meanwhile, rejection by 0.8213 will suggest that rebound from 0.7603 is merely a corrective move, and the long term down trend is not complete yet.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 0.8756 support turned resistance holds (2021 low). Retest of 0.7065 should be seen next.
