US consumer confidence weakened sharply in September, with The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index falling from 88.6 to 81.9. The deterioration was broad-based. The Present Situation Index dropped from 117.2 to 109.3, while the Expectations Index fell from 69.5 to 63.6, marking a third consecutive monthly decline. Assessments of current business conditions turned negative on balance for the first time since September 2024, while consumers also became more pessimistic about business conditions and household income prospects over the next six months. The release covers survey responses collected from September 1–23.
The labor-market picture weakened notably. The share of consumers saying jobs were plentiful fell from 24.5% to 23.6%, while those saying jobs were hard to get rose from 20.3% to 21.9%, narrowing the labor-market differential from 4.2% to just 1.7%. Expectations also deteriorated: the share expecting more jobs fell from 14.8% to 14.0%, while those expecting fewer jobs rose from 26.1% to 28.4%. Income expectations softened as well, with consumers anticipating higher income falling from 19.0% to 17.9% and those expecting declines rising from 13.5% to 15.4%.
However, the weaker confidence and labor readings were accompanied by higher inflation concerns rather than easing price pressure. Average 12-month inflation expectations rose from 5.8% to 6.1%, while median expectations increased from 4.8% to 5.1%. The share expecting higher interest rates over the next year also jumped to 68.4%. Consumers increasingly cited prices, the high cost of goods and services, and oil and gasoline costs as concerns, leaving the survey with an uncomfortable mix of softer growth and labor sentiment alongside firmer inflation expectations.
Data Summary
| Indicator | Previous | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 88.6 | 81.9 |
| Present Situation Index | 117.2 | 109.3 |
| Expectations Index | 69.5 | 63.6 |
| Jobs “plentiful” | 24.5% | 23.6% |
| Jobs “hard to get” | 20.3% | 21.9% |
| Labor-market differential | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Average 12-month inflation expectations | 5.8% | 6.1% |
| Median 12-month inflation expectations | 4.8% | 5.1% |
The September survey was conducted for The Conference Board, with the preliminary-results cutoff on September 23.
Key Takeaways
- Consumer confidence deteriorated sharply, with the headline index falling from 88.6 to 81.9 as both current conditions and expectations weakened.
- The Expectations Index fell for a third consecutive month, while the Present Situation Index also posted a sizable decline.
- Labor-market perceptions weakened materially. The gap between consumers saying jobs were plentiful and those saying jobs were hard to get narrowed from 4.2% to just 1.7%.
- Forward-looking employment views softened too, with fewer consumers expecting more jobs and more expecting employment opportunities to decline.
- The weaker growth and labor signals were accompanied by higher inflation expectations, with average 12-month expectations rising from 5.8% to 6.1% and median expectations from 4.8% to 5.1%.
- That combination makes the release less cleanly dovish than the confidence headline suggests: households are becoming more pessimistic about activity and jobs while simultaneously worrying more about inflation.
- For the broader US outlook, the release adds another soft labor-market signal ahead of payrolls, but rising inflation expectations keep the growth-versus-inflation tension unresolved.
