USD/CHF rose to 0.8382 last week, but formed a short term top there on bearish divergence condition in 4H MACD, and pulled back. Initial bias stays neutral this week for consolidations first. Further rise is expected as long as 0.8182 support holds. Above 0.8382 will resume the whole rise from 0.7603. However, firm break of 0.8182 will indicate that larger scale corrective fall is underway.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.7603 should at least be reversing the medium term trend. Focus is now on 0.8332 support turned resistance (2023 low) for confirmation. Firm break there will target 61.8% retracement of 0.9200 (2025 high) to 0.7603 at 0.8590. For now, this will remain the favored case as long as 0.7948 support holds.
In the long term picture, price action from 0.7065 (2011 low) are seen as a corrective pattern to the multi-decade down trend from 1.8305 (2000 high). It’s uncertain if the fall from 1.0342 is the second leg of the pattern, or resumption of the downtrend. But in either case, outlook will stay bearish as long as 55 M EMA (now at 0.8578) holds.
