AUD/USD’s break of 0.7012 resistance confirms short term bottoming at 0.6893, on bullish divergence condition in 4H MACD. Intraday bias is back on the upside. Sustained break of 38.2% retracement of 0.7237 to 0.6893 at 0.7024 will argue that fall from 0.7237 has completed, and target 61.8% retracement at 0.7106. On the downside, below 0.6986 minor support will dampen this bullish view and turn bias neutral first.
In the bigger picture, price action from 0.7277 medium term top is seen as developing into a corrective pattern to rise from 0.5913. While deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277 at 0.6756 to bring rebound. Consolidations would continue below 0.7277 for a while, before an eventual upside breakout. However, sustained break of 0.6756 will raise the chance of larger bearish reversal.
