USD/CAD’s rise from 1.3928 continued last week but lost momentum ahead of 1.4298 resistance. Initial bias remains neutral this week first On the upside, decisive break above 1.4298 high will resume the rally from 1.3480. Next target is 100% projection of 1.3730 to 1.4298 from 1.3928 at 1.4496. On the downside, below 1.4174 will turn bias to the downside to extend the consolidation pattern from 1.4298 with another falling leg.
In the bigger picture, current development argues that rise from 1.3480 might still be in progress. Decisive break of 61.8% retracement of 1.4791 (2025 high) to 1.3480 at 1.4290 will bring stronger rally to retest 1.4791. However, break of 1.3928 will argue that the rise has completed, and turn near term outlook bearish.
In the long term picture, strong support from 55 M EMA (now at 1.3654) argues that up trend from 0.9056 (2007 low) is still in progress. Break of 1.4791 is in favor at a later stage. However, firm break of 55 D EMA will argue that the five-wave up trend has already completed.
