Weekly Report
Trade Chaos Likely to Linger, June to Bring More Uncertainty
Markets endured another week of trade confusion, with sentiment swinging sharply on alternating headlines. As a result, investor confidence remains fragile, with markets finding little footing as the tug-of-war between hopes of progress and fear of escalation continues.
While the 90-day reciprocal tariff truce is now in effect, its second...
Tariff Truce Wobbles at Halfway Mark; Risk Sentiment Falters on Renewed Threats
Trade war roared back into focus late last week, derailing fragile market sentiment already strained by concerns over the ballooning US deficit. The catalyst came in the form of a sharp threat from US President Donald Trump on European Union imports. This abrupt escalation shattered hopes that the 90-day...
Moody’s Downgrade Disrupts Calm from Tariff Truce, Dollar Faces New Test
Just as markets were finding their footing following a series of positive trade developments, Moody’s delivered a late-week shock by downgrading the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1. The move overshadowed the optimism sparked by the US-China tariff truce and the broader de-escalation of trade tensions.
The trade...
Sterling and Dollar Lead as Trade Deal Grabs Attention
Last week was dominated by developments out of the US and UK, not just because of monetary policy decisions, but also the unexpected announcement of a US-UK trade deal. Fed's hold and BoE's cut were were largely overshadowed by the surprise trade breakthrough.
Importantly, the structure of the agreement offered...
Risk-On Sentiment Regains Control as Data Downplays Severity of Tariff Shock
Global risk sentiment continued to improve last week, with major equity indices staging robust rallies as investor anxiety over the fallout from tariffs eased. The solid US non-farm payroll data was a key turning point, reassuring markets that the early economic impact of the trade shock was not as...
Global Risk Sentiment Brightens, But Caution Lingers Around US Assets
Global risk sentiment showed further improvement last week, with stock markets around the world posting impressive gains. Although headlines continued to focus on the confusing state of U.S.-China trade tensions, there was quiet but notable progress on multiple trade fronts, including US talks with Japan, South Korea and India.
US...
A Whirlwind Week Leaves US Assets Reeling Amid Tariff Turmoil
It has been a brutally volatile week across global markets, driven by a whirlwind of US tariff implementations, abrupt reversals, and rapid retaliatons. Investors were left scrambling to make sense of the White House’s constantly shifting trade stance. We won’t attempt to recap every step of the tariff saga,...
Market Turmoil Unleashed as Global Tariff Battlelines Drawn
The global financial markets were shaken last week as US President Donald Trump’s long-anticipated reciprocal tariff plan arrived with a bang. The magnitude of the tariff rates, the number of countries impacted, and the sheer complexity of implementation shocked investors. What could have been a temporary setback quickly spiraled...
Markets Rush to Safe Haven as Tariff Clock Ticks Down
While US investors managed to stay relatively composed through most of last week, the calm cracked heading into the weekend. Stocks saw extended selloffs, Treasury yields dropped, and Gold surged to yet another record high — all classic signs of a decisive flight to safety. With risk appetite now...
Global Trends Hit Pause, Consolidations to Follow Until Trump’s Liberation Day
The dominant trends that shaped Q1 in global markets appear to have run their course, with most major assets entering consolidation phase last week.
US stocks staged a mild recovery from steep selloff since mid-February, but upside momentum was notably weak. Meanwhile, Dollar, which had been under pressure throughout March,...
Currency Markets Consolidate as Trader Start Repositioning for Tariff Battles in April
The past week in the currency markets was marked more by consolidation than decisive moves, even as risk aversion deepened in US stock markets. Dollar’s selloff slowed and turned into a modest recovery, but there was no clear momentum for bullish trend reversal. Sentiment remained fragile, weighed down by...
A Multi-Decade Trend Reversal Underway in EUR/USD?
The sharp contrast between Europe’s newfound unity and the ongoing tariff chaos in the US has been a defining theme in the financial markets. Euro’s extraordinary strength last week reflected growing investor confidence in the region’s strategic shift toward fiscal expansion and defense spending. From the formation of the...
Safe-Haven Demand Fuels Dollar Rally Amid Trade, Geopolitical Turmoil
Market sentiment took a decisive turn for the worse last week, with risk aversion dominating across asset classes. The combination of deteriorating domestic economic conditions in the US and heightened global uncertainties has fueled concerns that risk appetite could weaken further. Equities faced renewed selling pressure, yields dropped sharply.
Domestically,...
Risk Aversion Returns as US Tariff Fears Resurface, Dollar Recovers Late
Geopolitical developments dominated global headlines last week, particularly surrounding peace negotiations over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and evolving US-Ukraine relations. While US President Donald Trump’s tariffs took a backseat, concerns over their impact on consumer spending and economic growth resurfaced by the end of the week, triggering renewed risk...
Dollar at Crossroads: Rebound Possible, But Bearish Risks Intensify
Dollar closed the week broadly lower, with the only exception being its slight gains against the even weaker Yen. Risk-on sentiment dominated global markets, fueling strong rallies in equities across the US, Europe, and Hong Kong, which in turn kept the greenback under pressure.
The greenback had previously enjoyed a...
Dollar’s Wild Week Ends in Uncertainty, Awaits Next Tariff Cue
Dollar faced significant volatility last week as shifting trade policy signals from the White House left investors scrambling for clarity. Initially, tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports were imposed, only to be quickly suspended for 30 days following new agreements on border security and fentanyl control. Now, the focus...
Dollar Slumps as Risk-On Mood Prevails Under Trump’s First Week
Dollar ended the week as the worst-performing major currency, largely weighed down by strong risk-on sentiment that took hold after President Donald Trump’s first week in office. Investors had anticipated more aggressive trade measures from the new administration, but Trump instead struck a relatively softer tone on tariffs, leading...
Global Markets Look Beyond Trump’s Inauguration as Local Drivers Take the Lead
Global markets are buzzing in anticipation of Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20, yet the latest developments suggest investors may already be looking past the immediate impact. Despite speculation surrounding Trump’s policies—particularly tariffs—various benchmarks and asset classes are charting their own directions based on localized drivers and monetary policy...
Dollar Gains Momentum as Fed Cuts Come Into Question
The US markets last week were shaped by two dominant themes: uncertainty surrounding trade policies of the incoming US administration and the impact of robust US economic data. Initial market confusion, driven by ambiguous signals regarding tariffs, created significant volatility. However, this indecisiveness gave way to clarity as strong...
Dollar Starts Strong vs Europe, Sets Sights on Yen and Commodity Currencies Next
Dollar Index started the new year with a pronounced surge. Sterling, Euro, and Swiss Franc bore the brunt of this strength, reflecting the sluggish economic outlook in Europe and ongoing concerns about the impact of new US tariffs. Despite these gains, Dollar's performance against other currencies, including Yen and...