Sun, Aug 18, 2019 @ 20:15 GMT
After some roller-coaster rides during the week, Dollar staged a broad based come back before the weekly close. The Republicans' tax plan is now back on track for being signed off by US President Donald Trump, by the end of the year, probably even before Christmas. There were various factors sank the greenback. Tamer than expected core CPI reading was one. An additional dissenter in Fed's rate hike was another. But looking back, the uncertainty on whether Senate could get the bill passed was probably the biggest weight on Dollar. It's still early to tell but focus will now be on whether Dollar could stage a sustainable turnaround before year end.
Dollar ended the week as the strongest major currency on optimism that Republicans are on track to get the tax bill passed by the end of the year. However, there was certain indecisiveness in Dollar's rally. In particular, the greenback lost momentum as wage growth in non-farm payroll report disappointed. That added to concerns of lack on inflationary pressure, and thus could slow down Fed's tightening pace. But there are two sides of every coin as the greenback just lost momentum, but not reversed. Dollar will look into this week's FOMC rate hike and economic projections for guidance.
Dollar took a back seat last week as traders were cautious ahead of the Senate's vote on the tax bill. Sterling took lead instead as boosted by positive Brexit news, as UK and EU seemed to have agreed on the divorce bill and Irish border. Canadian Dollar followed as the second strongest as stellar employment data raised the chance of more BoC hike next year. Meanwhile, Yen ended as the weakest one. It's followed by Euro, despite solid Eurozone data. Now, with the tax bill finally passed in Senate on Saturday, the greenback would likely come back to spotlight this week, with non-farm payroll also featured.
Euro surged broadly last week as economic data suggested a "boom" in Germany ahead. Also, political situation in Germany has improved. Ending as the strongest currency, Euro also took Sterling and Swiss Franc high. On the other hand, Dollar ended as the weakest one as traders held their bet during thin holiday trading. The US tax plan is entering into a "make or break" week. Despite sharp rally in oil price, Canadian Dollar ended as the second weakest one as data suggested that BoC would remain on hold. Aussie and Yen were both weak too. We perceive the rout in China stock markets as a factor in pressuring both.
Yen surged broadly last week and ended as the strongest one as partly driven by flattening yield curve, and partly by global risk aversion. Selloff in oil was one of the major factors driving equities down. Euro and Swiss Franc followed Yen with the common currency supported solidly by strong German GDP. On the other hand, commodity currencies ended as the weakest ones. In particular, data from Australia suggested that RBA would stay on hold for longer than originally expected. Meanwhile, inflation data from Canada argued that BoC won't rush into another rate hike. News from US were mixed. On the positive side, a big step was made with passage of the tax bill in House. On the negative side, the real challenges lie in Senate where Republicans only have a slim majority. And, efforts to reconcile the bills of both chambers are huge. Also, there are concerns of political instability as Special Counsel Robert Mueller's Russian probe is getting closer to US President Donald Trump. But so far, US financial markets have displayed much more resilience than others.
It was a rather dull week last week as US tax plan was the main market driver. Dollar ended broadly lower as investors were clearly dissatisfied with the Senate's version of the plan, which delay corporate tax cut by a year. But judging from reactions in US stocks, comparing to European markets, sentiments were not that bad. For the moment, DOW's up trend is still intact. Similar picture is seen in Dollar which is holding above key near term support level against all other major currencies. Indeed, US long term yields staged the strongest rally in more than a month on Friday, on worry off additional bond supply next year. And the surge in 10 year yield could provide the greenback with extra support. The economic calendar with come back this week with more important economic data, like CPI fro US and UK. And, with a tight working schedule, US tax plan will stay on top as a key focus in the markets.
It was a week full of high profile events and much volatility was seen. But in the end, most forex pairs and crosses ended inside prior week's range. Canadian Dollar closed as the second strongest, next to Kiwi, thanks to strong October job numbers. In addition, the Loonie was lifted further as WTI crude oil surged through 55.24 key resistance to resume the up trend that started back in February 2016. Sterling was the weakest one as markets responded negatively to the dovish BoE rate cut. But the pound is stubbornly holding on to key near term support against Dollar, Euro and Yen so far. Dollar ended the week mixed after all the events. FOMC delivered a forgettable statement, Jerome Powell was confirmed as President Donald Trump's nomination as next Fed chair, House released the tax bill. Nonetheless, resilience of the greenback after non-farm payroll miss could be seen as hint of underlying strength. And Dollar could be back into driving seat soon.
Dollar closed broadly higher last week, and closed as the strongest as boosted by a couple of factors. Firstly, House approved Senate's version of budget blueprint, and cleared an important procedural step for getting the tax cuts done by the end of the year. Secondly, markets responded positively to news that Fed chair Janet Yellen is out of the race for a renewal. Instead, Fed Governor Jerome Powell and Stanford University economist John Taylor are now the front runners. Powell is reported to be slightly more favored by US President Donald Trump and is seen as a less hawkish candidate. But after all, there is still a possibility of Powell/Taylor combination for chair/vice of Fed. And either one seems to be more welcomed by the markets than Yellen. Thirdly, Q3 GDP came in at an impressive 3% annualized growth, despite the impacts of hurricanes.
Dollar surged broadly last week as Republican's tax plan overcame another hurdle. The news also sent DOW and S&P 500 to new records, with upside acceleration. Accompanying that, treasury yields closed sharply higher, reversing prior week's loss. Technical development in Dollar was not totally convincing yet. NZD/USD led the way lower as markets were unhappy with the new labour-led coalition in New Zealand. USD/CAD followed after disappointing economic data. Solid risk appetite also pushed USD/JPY and USD/CHF near term resistance to resume recent rally. But EUR/USD was kept in range only, showing much resilience in spite of political turmoil in Catalonia. GBP/USD was also held in range with support from some positive news regarding Brexit. AUD/USD also stays in recently established range.
It has been a rather volatile week. We were partly correct in expecting strong impact from politics on the markets. But the reactions to central bank news and economic data surprised us. Dollar was clearly weighed down by FOMC minutes and CPI miss and ended as the weakest one. Meanwhile, Euro reversed early gains and ended mixed on rumors about ECB's tapering plan. There was practical no impacts from US President Donald Trump, North Korea and not even Catalonia. Markets also ignored UK Prime Minister Theresa May. Nonetheless, politics did play a role in the extraordinary volatile in Sterling, which ended as the strongest one. Aussie and Kiwi followed as boosted by China data.
Dollar ended as the strongest major currency last week as economic data released affirmed a December Fed hike. The surprised contraction in non-farm payroll was offset by strong wage growth. However, the greenback pared back some of its gain on resurgence on North Korea risk. On the other hand, the British Pound suffered broad based heavy selling as there were increasing calls for Prime Minister Theresa May to step down, in the crucial time of trade negotiations with the world. In spite of political uncertainties in Catalonia, Euro showed much resilience and ended the week mixed only. North Korea, Catalonia, Theresa May, Japan election, are the key things to watch ahead. Politics might overshadow economic data again.
There were some conflicting movements in the markets last week. Risk appetite was clearly strong in US and Europe. S&P 500 and NASDAQ ended at record highs and DOW was not far from it. Dollar was firm as investors finally got some more details about the long awaited tax reform. Treasury yield also jumped as markets were getting more confident on the bet of December Fed hike. However, the greenback was overshadowed by Swiss Franc, which ended as the strongest one for the week. Dollar was only the second best performer. Yen also ended the third strongest ones. The decoupling of risk sentiments with Swiss Franc and Yen could be partly seen as the results of quarter end position squaring. Or, it's a sign that Dollar strength was indecisive due to lack of confidence over the tax plan.
There were a lot of happenings in the financial markets last week. The more hawkish than expected FOMC announce was supposed to give Dollar a strong boost. But it was the resilience of Euro that's much more convincing. New Zealand Dollar ended as the strongest one leading up to Saturday's election. Kiwi traders should be given a relief after the ruling National Party won the election, even though without outright majority. On the other hand, Canadian Dollar ended as the weakest as recent consolidation continued. Yen and Swiss Franc followed as the next weakest in an era of global monetary stimulus exit.
British Pound ended as the strongest major currency last week as boosted by hawkish BoE announcement. A November rate hike by BoE is now a real possibility. Kiwi ended as the second strongest in spite of some volatility ahead of generally election. Dollar followed on revived speculations of a December Fed hike. Meanwhile, Yen ended as the weakest as markets on return of risk appetite. US equity indices made records highs while strong rebounds were seen in DAX and CAC. FTSE was the exception due to BoE rate expectation. Yen is also additionally pressured as markets are back looking at diverging global interest rates.
Dollar ended the weak as the weakest major currency as weighed down by a number of factors. Judging from the fact that Yen and Swiss Franc were the strongest ones, risk aversion was a key factor in driving the greenback down. There is so far no resolution to the geopolitical tension between the US and North Korea yet. While US is calling for United Nations Security Council to vote on fresh sanctions against North Korea, it's effectiveness is in heavy doubt. There were also fears that North Korea will launch another missile to celebrate its foundation day on September 9, that is today. Also, not long after hurricane Harvey left, another one Irma is expected to land this weekend too. Some estimated the dame of Irma to be as much as USD 200b, topping Katrina that slammed into New Orleans back in 2005.
Dollar survived the geopolitical risks in Korea peninsula, damage of hurricane Harvey, and a set of disappointing non-farm payroll data, to end the week "mixed". While the pull back in EUR/USD caught much attention, we'd like the point out that Dollar ended the week lower against Canadian Dollar, Australian Dollar and Sterling. Indeed, the pound ended as the third strongest major currency, next to Canadian Dollar, even though the third round of Brexit negotiations ended with no concrete progress but more verbal exchanges between EU and UK officials. On the other hand, as risk aversion came and went quickly, Yen and Swiss Franc ended as the weakest ones, just next to Kiwi. Traders could take a brief rest on Monday as US and Canada will be on holiday. But three central bank meetings, RBA, BoC and ECB promise much volatility ahead.
Dollar ended the week as a big loser after the highly anticipated Jackson Hole Symposium. It was pointed out before that there were little expectations for comments on monetary policies from Fed Chair Janet Yellen and ECB President Mario Draghi. And the reactions indeed showed that traders were relieved by the lack on cover on monetary policies. And business returned to usual with EUR/USD resuming recent up trend while Dollar was back under pressure. While Dollar still managed to end higher against Yen, near term outlook remained bearish in USD/JPY and it's just a matter of time to see downside breakout in the pair. Focus will now turn to key economic data including non-farm payroll from US but it's unlikely to safe the Dollar. Another focus to watch this week is another round of Brexit negotiation.
Risk aversion was again the main theme in the financial markets last week. But this time, commodity currencies ended as the strongest ones. Sterling was hardest hit as disappointing inflation reading further killed the chance of an early BoE hike. Euro followed on report that ECB President Draghi won't address monetary policy in the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium this week. Also, the common currency was pressured as ECB minutes showed worries on Euro overshooting its strength. Dollar suffered much on the political turmoil in the White House but it ended slightly higher against most except Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar. Meanwhile Yen and Swiss Franc failed to capitalize on risk aversion and ended the week mixed.
Risk aversion dominated the markets last week as tension between US and North Korea suddenly intensified on verbal exchanges of the leaders. DOW initial made new record high at 22179.11 but ended the week down -234.49 pts or -1.06% at 21858.32. S&P 500 closed down -35.51 pts or -1.43% at 2441.32. European indices were harder hit with DAX closed down -283.66 pts or -2.31%. FTSE closed down -201.75 pts or -2.69%. Japan was on holiday on Friday but Hong Kong HSI closed the week down -2.46%. US yields was further hit by tame CPI and PPI data with 10 year yield closed at 2.189, taking out 2.225 near term support decisively. In the currency markets, Yen and Swiss Franc ended as the strongest ones on risk aversion. Commodity currencies ended as the weakest ones, followed by Sterling. Gold surged on risk aversion and Dollar weakness and closed up 2.4% at 1295. WTI crude oil traded like a passerby and struggled to regain 50 on another attempt.
Dollar staged a strong rebound towards the end of the week as boosted by an overall set of solid job data. While the greenback still ended lower against Euro for the week, it's now looking likely that the greenback has found a short term bottom already. It's still early to confirm a trend reversal for Dollar yet. And we believe the key lies in the yet to be confirmed fiscal policy of US President Donald Trump. But for now, Dollar will probably gyrate higher in the early part of this week until CPI release on Friday. On the other hand, while Euro ended the week as the strongest currency, its rallies against Dollar, Yen and even Swiss Franc are starting to look tired. Sterling ended the week generally lower after markets perceived the BoE Super Thursday as a dovish one. But commodity currencies were even weaker with Canadian Dollar starting to pare back the strong gains in the past two months.
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