Mon, Feb 18, 2019 @ 18:27 GMT
While US equities surged to new record high last week, other markets didn't follow. Dollar ended mixed in spite of a chorus of hawkish comments from Fed officials, including chair Janet Yellen. A batch of stronger than expected data also provided little support to the greenback. Instead, Dollar was dragged down by treasury yields, which failed to break out from recent range and reversed during the week. Political uncertainties could be a major factor in triggering safe haven flows to US bonds. And such sentiment could also be seen in the broad based weakness in Euro, which closed as the second weakest major currency next to Sterling. Swiss Franc decouple from Euro and Sterling and ended as the second strongest currency. And overall risk aversion on European situation could be the factor in driving up the Japanese Yen, which ended as the strongest major currency.
US stocks soared to new record high last week on resurgence of talk of president Donald Trump's expansive policies. In particular, bulls regained control after Trump said he would announce "phenomenal" tax reforms within two or three weeks. DJIA closed the week up 197.9 pts, or 0.99% at 20269.37. S&P 500 gained 18.7 pts or 0.81% for the week to close at 2316.10. NASDAQ rose 67.4 pts or 1.19% to close at 5734.13. All three major indices closed at record highs. The developments helped lift treasury yield from intra-week selloff. 10 year yield closed at 2.409 after dipping to 2.325, comparing to prior week's close at 2.491. Dollar was given a boost and ended as the second strongest major currency, next to Sterling. The Dollar index closed at 100.71, up from prior week's close at 99.73. Fed chair Janet Yellen's testimony to Congress will be a major focus this week. But Trump's tweets and any economy-related announcements will be the things that move markets.
The financial markets traded with solid risk appetite last week and the three major US equity indices surged to new record highs in US president Donald Trump's first week in White House. Markets took Trump's signing of some executive orders, include trade and immigration, as sign that he will deliver his election promise and push an expansive fiscal policy. Nonetheless, the rally in stocks and yields lost some steam towards the end of the week after disappointing Q4 GDP data. And Dollar ended mixed. Meanwhile, Sterling ended as the strongest major currency as Supreme Court ruled that prime minister Theresa May's Brexit plan must seek parliament approval. The sale of a new 40 year government bond in UK also attracted record demand, showing appetite for UK assets. Meanwhile, Yen ended as the weakest one as BoJ stepped up its asset purchases to cap the rally in JGB yields.
US equities ended Friday mildly higher but closed the week down as US president Donald Trump's inauguration provided little inspiration to the markets. DJIA closed at 19827.25 comparing to prior week's close at 19885.73. S&P 500 closed at 2271.31 comparing to prior week's close at 2274.64. Treasury yields, however, were notably higher. 10 year yield closed at 2.467 comparing to prior week's close at 2.309. Dollar ended the week mixed, closing higher against Yen and Canadian but down against all others. Dollar index gyrated around 101 last week, where the 55 day EMA sits. In other markets, Gold hit as high as 1218.9 but lost momentum above 1200 handle. WTI crude oil stayed in recent range and closed at 53.24.
Dollar ended the week broadly lower, except versus Sterling, after US president-elect Donald Trump disappointed the markets by not giving any details on his policies during the first post election press conference. Dollar index reached as low as 100.72 before recovering to close at 101.18. Meanwhile, the greenback also took out key near term support level against Euro, Yen and Canadian Dollar, which carries some bearish implications. However, treasury yields staged a strong rebound on Friday, which could provide some relieves to Dollar bullish. 10 year yield closed at 2.380, after dipping to as low as 2.309, comparing to prior week's close at 2.418. Stocks were also resilient with NASDAQ closing a fresh record of 5574.12. DJIA stayed in tight range of around 200 pts. below 20000 handle. There are still prospects for the greenback to strike back is Trump delivers in his inauguration on January 20.
The markets originally looked set for a general trend reversal with the synchronized sharp decline in US stocks, yield and the Dollar leading into 2017. Nonetheless, equities staged a strong come back towards the end of last week and helped stabilized both yields and the greenback. The overall solid non-farm payroll report, with strong wage growth, provided some support to sentiments. But it looked more like the trump rally is back in force. While there are still risks of trend reversals, it's much lowered now with S&P 500 and NASDAQ closing at record high at 2276.98 and 5521.06 on Friday. DJIA also just missed 20000 handle by a hair and reached as high as 19999.63 before closing at 19963.80. The coming would be crucial to the overall developments in the markets as Donald Trump's inauguration day on January 20 approaches.
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