ECB bulletin: Further weakening of economy into beginning of 2023

    In the monthly economic bulletin, ECB said the Governing Council expects a “further weakening” of economic activity “in the remainder of 2022 and the beginning of 2023”.

    High inflation continues to “dampen spending and production” and severe disruptions in gas supply “have worsened the situation further”.

    Additionally, “worsening terms of trade”, with imports prices rising faster than exports prices, are “weighing on incomes in the euro area”.

    Risks to the economic growth outlook are “clearly on the downside, especially in the near term”. Risks to the inflation outlook are “primarily on the upside”.

    ECB’s future policy rate decisions will continue to be “data dependent” and follow a “meeting-by-meeting approach”.

    Full monthly bulletin here.

    BoJ Kuroda: Premature to lay out details of exit strategy

      BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament, “it’s premature to lay out details of an exit strategy. But one major factor of debate will be the pace of increase in the BoJ’s short-term policy rate, now set at -0.1%.”

      “Another factor would be how to adjust its balance sheet,” he said, noting that other major central banks adopted the sequence of interest rate hike first, then shrinking balance sheet.

      “It’s extremely important for the BOJ to underpin the economy with ultra-loose monetary policy and ensure the necessary environment is falling into place for companies to hike wages,” Kuroda emphasized.

      Fed Kashkari: Any talk of a pivot is entirely premature

        Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said, “at the next meeting, which is mid-December, I don’t know what we are going to do.”

        “There’s a lot of talk in the public about might we raise rates by 50 basis points, might we raise rates by 75 basis points – those are certainly going to be on the table, but could it be something beyond that? It’s possible too,” he added.

        Fed’s dual mandate, price stability and maximum employment could come into tension at a certain point. However, Kashkari said, “we are a long, long, long way away from that right now, so that’s why any talk of a pivot is entirely premature.”

        Fed Evans: There’s benefits to adjusting tightening pace soon

          Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said yesterday, “there’s benefits to adjusting the pace (of tightening) as soon as we can.”

          “I’m hopeful that we’re getting to a point where the dynamics for inflation turning over and returning towards our 2% objective will be put in place, if not very soon, soon, and we’ll actually see it in inflation,” he said.

          “If you don’t begin to think about adjusting the pace, taking account of lags, and you just keep increasing rates by a large amount every time you get a disappointing report,” then “next thing you know, you’re at a very high federal funds rate.”

          “I’m going to continue to be nervous that, as we go higher than that, it could be that the economy is going to face more challenges, and that that could present risks on the ‘real’ side, the full employment mandate,” he said. “It’s a risk.”

          GBP/CHF pressing head and shoulder neckline, more downside ahead

            Notable decline is seen in GBP/CHF today and it’s now pressing a head and shoulder neckline support, as well as 55 day EMA. Considering bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD, 1.1574 is likely a short term top. Fall from there should be correcting whole rebound from 1.0183. Deeper fall is now in favor as long as 1.1410 resistance holds.

            Firm break of 1.1243support will complete a head and shoulder top (ls: 1.1393; h: 1.1574; rs: 1.1410). In such case, further fall should be seen to 100% projection of 1.1574 to 1.1243 from 1.1410 at 1.1079 and below.

            Stronger support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 1.0183 to 1.1574 at 1.1043 to contain downside to bring rebound, at least on first attempt.

            However, strong break of 1.1043 will open up deeper decline to 161.8% projection at 1.0874, which is close to 1.0893 support, before bottoming.

            RBA Bullock: Further increases in interest rates will be required

              RBA Deputy Governor Michele Bullock said in a speech that “further increases in interest rates will be required” to meet the inflation target. Meanwhile, the “size and timing of future increases” will depend on the data.

              She added that inflation is “increasingly broad based” and it “won’t peak until the end of the year”. After that, RBA expects ” rising interest rates and cost-of-living pressures to drive a moderation in consumption that brings demand more in line with supply”. And that should help to get inflation back to target “over the next couple of years”.

              Bullock also discussed four uncertainties around the central forecasts. Firstly, in the international environment, a “significant concern” is the “downside risks in China”. Second is what the current high inflation and cost-of-living pressures might do to price and wage expectations in Australia. Third is the  behavior of households as interest rates and inflation rise. Fourth is  around energy and other supply shocks that could boost inflation and lower growth.

              Full speech here.

              Gold surges, will complete double bottom?

                Gold surged notably on the back of selloff in the greenback, which came with rally in the US stocks. So far, the markets are expecting Republicans to take back control of the House after mid-term elections. Meanwhile, the race for Senate remains tight. Yet, in either case, the result would be a divided Congress and Administration. Investors would welcome such as result as that would limit new taxes and regulations.

                Immediate focus is now on 1729.28 resistance in Gold. Decisive break there would complete a double bottom pattern (1614.60; 1616.51), which is at least a near term bullish sign. Stronger rally should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 2070.06 to 1614.60 at 1788.58 at least. Nevertheless, break of 1681.69 minor support will retain near term bearishness, and turn bias neutral first.

                Bitcoin resuming down trend on broad crypto selloff

                  Cryptocurrencies stumbled overnight with Bitcoin crashing to the lowest level since June, eyeing 2022 low. The moves came on news that Binance offered to FTX’s non-US operations to fix “liquidity crunch”.

                  Technically, current downside moment, and the break of September’s low at 18144 suggests that Bitcoin is ready for down trend resumption. For now, further decline is expected as long as 19272 resistance holds.

                  Bitcoin is ready to taken on 61.8% projection of 25198 to 18144 from 21460 at 17100 first. Firm break there could prompt downside acceleration to 100% projection at 14406.

                  BoE Pill: We have done some, still more to do

                    BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said at a conference that recent market turmoil in the UK led to some “de-anchoring” of inflation expectations. “What we’re most concerned about is whether this self-sustaining inflation will persist,” he said.

                    He added that officials at BoE have “more to digest” about how the government’s plan will impact the economy. They will look carefully at the budget due November 17.

                    Regarding interest rates, “we have done some, and I think there is still more to do,” Pill said. “At some point you have to think what level of rate is appropriate.”

                    Eurozone retail sales rose 0.4% mom in Sep, EU up 0.4% mom

                      Eurozone retail sales rose 0.4% mom in September, better than expectation of 0.0% mom. Volume of retail trade increased by 1.0% for non-food products and by 0.4% for food, drinks and tobacco, while it decreased by -0.6% for automotive fuels.

                      EU retail sales rose 0.4% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the highest monthly increases in the total retail trade volume were registered in Austria (+3.9%), Malta (+1.7%) and Poland (+1.4%). The largest decreases were observed in Slovenia (-3.7%), Ireland and Portugal (both -2.0%) and Slovakia (-1.3%).

                      Full release here.

                      SNB Jordan: Determined action is necessary

                        SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan, said in a conference, “In an environment such as the one we face today, mixed signals on the persistence of inflation might tempt policymakers to postpone further reaction to inflationary pressures until uncertainty about future inflation has receded”.

                        “Yet uncertainty must not mean indecision. A risk management approach to policy-making sometimes calls for decisive action,” he added

                        “When faced with large shocks that increase the risk of persistent movements of inflation away from the range, determined action is necessary, irrespective of whether these movements are below or above the range,” Jordan said.

                         

                        ECB de Guindos: We will start QT sooner or later, for sure in 2023

                          ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said in an interview, “we will continue raising rates to a level that ensures inflation will come back into line with our definition of price stability”. The level will depend on ” data that we receive, the evolution of inflation, economic conditions, demand, and energy prices.”

                          He expected inflation to hover around its present level of 10.7% “hover the next few months”. Inflation will then “start to decline in the first half of next year”. Quarterly GDP growth in Q4 will be “negative”, and to continue in Q1. This “technical recession” is not expected to be “very profound”.

                          On the topic of quantitative tightening, de Guindos said ECB will start it “sooner or later, for sure in 2023”. It must be implemented with “a lot prudence”. He expects to start with a “passive QT by not fully reinvesting the maturing securities in our portfolio.”. The “characteristics and the timing” of QT will be discussed in December. QT may overlap or not with normalization of interest rates.

                          Full interview here.

                          BoJ opinions: Undesirable to make premature changes to monetary policy

                            In the Summary of Opinions at BoJ’s October 27-28 meeting, it’s noted that it’s wages increase in a “sustainable and stable manner” to achieve the inflation target. Inflation could “deviate upward” form the baseline scenario but it’s still “uncertain” whether the rises in prices will be “sustainable”. It is “undesirable” to “make premature changes” to monetary policy for the “risk of disrupting the formation of a virtuous cycle between prices and wages.”

                            Nevertheless, on member noted, “it is necessary to examine the impact of high prices on household behavior and wages humbly and without any preconceptions while paying attention to the side effects of monetary easing.

                            Another member noted, “it is also important to continue to examine how future exit strategies will affect the market and whether market participants will be well prepared for them.”

                            Full Summary of Opinions here.

                            RBNZ 2-yr inflation expectations rose to 3.62%

                              In RBNZ’s Survey of Expectations, businesses expect interest rate to rise 65bps to 4.15% a quarter ahead. In a year’s time, they saw interest rates rose further to 4.67%.

                              Mean one-year ahead GDP growth decreased from prior survey’s 1.49% to 1.27%. One year ahead inflation expectations rose from 4.86% in last quarter to 5.08%. Two year ahead inflation expectations rose sharply from 3.07% to 3.62%.

                              Full releases here.

                              Australia NAB business confidence dropped to 0, conditions dropped to 22

                                Australia NAB Business Confidence dropped from 5 to 0 in October. Business Conditions dropped slightly from 23 to 22. Trading conditions dropped from 37 to 31. Profitability conditions rose from 21 to 22. Employment conditions dropped from 17 to 14.

                                NAB Chief Economist Alan Oster said, “Conditions remained strong in October with demand still very elevated and profitability holding up… Despite the strength in conditions, confidence has been falling for several months as headwinds have weighed on the outlook for the global economy and Australia.”

                                Full release here.

                                Australia Westpac consumer sentiment dropped to 78, just slightly above pandemic low

                                  Australia Westpac Consumer Sentiment dropped -6.9% to 78.0 in November. The reading was below the low point of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008, and was just slightly higher than pandemic low at 75.6.

                                  Westpac said that inflation and interest rates are weighing heavily on family finances. Nearly 40% of consumers, a record high, look to cut Christmas spending. Confidence in house prices is heading towards 2018.19 lows.

                                  Regarding RBA policy, Westpac expects it to hike by a further 25bps on December 6. Westpac also expects RBA to hike by an additional 0.75% out to May next year.

                                  Full release here.

                                  Australia AiG services dropped to 47.7, second month of contraction

                                    Australia AiG Performance of Services Index dropped slightly from 48.0 to 47.7 in October, staying in contraction for a second month. Looking at some details, sales dropped -0.5 to 41.3. Employment rose 1.3 to 53.9. New orders rose 4.3 to 54.5. Input prices rose 4.2 to 77.6. Selling prices rose 3.9 to 62.2. Average wages dropped -1.1 to 64.8.

                                    Innes Willox, Chief Executive of Ai Group, said: “Australia’s service sector faces weakening conditions. Chronic labour shortages have dragged on the supply-side of the sector for most of this year. And now the effects of cumulative interest rate rises are weakening demand conditions as well. Conditions particularly deteriorated for retail & hospitality and business & property, which are most exposed to consumer sentiment.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    Eurozone Sentix investor confidence rose to -30.9, concerns of catastrophic gas shortage fading

                                      Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence rose from -38.3 to -30.9 in November, above expectation of -35. Current situation index rose from -35.5 to -29.5. Expectations index rose from -41.0 to -32.3, highest since June this year.

                                      Sentix said: “At the beginning of November, the sentix economic indices in Euroland surprise on the positive side. The overall index rises by 7.4 points to -30.9, which is still not a trend reversal signal. But the rise in situation and expectation values shows how sensitively investors react in their economic expectations to signals from the energy market.

                                      “For this is the cause of the hopeful changes. October showed higher temperatures than usual and this means that gas storage facilities in Germany, for example, are full to the brim, more than expected for November. Spot market gas prices collapsed in response. Concerns about a catastrophic gas shortage are fading.”

                                      Full released here.

                                      ECB Villeroy: Hiking pace more flexible, possibly slower beyond neutral rate

                                        ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau said in an interview, “as long as underlying inflation has not clearly peaked, we shouldn’t stop on rates,”

                                        “It’s too early to tell where the end point in interest rates, or the so-called terminal rate, could be,” Villeroy said. “That said we are not far from the neutral rate, beyond which our hiking pace could be more flexible and possibly slower.” 

                                        “We can raise interest rates without provoking significant unemployment,” Villeroy said. “To determine the level of growth next year, energy is more important than monetary policy. Our aim is not to provoke a recession but to tame inflation.”

                                        China exports dropped -0.3% yoy in Oct, imports down -0.7% yoy

                                          In USD term, China’s exports dropped -0.3% yoy to USD 298.37B in October, well below expectation of 4.3% yoy. That’s the worst performance since May 2020.

                                          Imports dropped -0.7% yoy to USD 213.22B, below expectation of 0.1% yoy. That’s the the worst since August 2020.

                                          The simultaneous contraction in both exports and imports was the first since May 2020.

                                          Trade surplus widened slightly from USD 84.74B to USD 85.15B, short of expectation of USD 95.95.