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Bundesbank: Inflation could reach order of 10% in fall

    By
    ActionForex
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    Bundesbank said in its monthly report that the Germany will be adversely affected by the unfavorable developments on the gas market in the summer quarter and beyond. Also, the likelihood of GDP falling in the coming winter half-year has therefore increased “significantly”.

    Inflation rate is expected to reach “new highs” in the Autumn, and could reach the “order of 10 percent”. Outlook for inflation remains extremely uncertain, primarily due to the unclear situation on the commodity markets.

    Full report here.

    Gold’s accelerates down, 1700 vulnerable

      By
      ActionForex
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      Gold’s decline from 1807.66 extends further today, on the back on broad based strength in Dollar. The downside accelerations argue that rebound from 1680.83 has completed at 1806.66 already. Deeper fall is likely through 1700 handle.

      Nevertheless, strong support is still mildly in favor at around 1680.83 low to contain downside. Above 1772.19 minor resistance should resume the rebound through 1807.66.

      However, the rejections by 55 day EMA, and below 55 week EMA are both rather bearish signal. Firm break of 1680.83 cluster support will complete a medium term double top pattern (2074.84, 2070.06). That could prompt deeper selloff to 61.8% retracement of 1046.27 to 2074.84 at 1439.18.

      China PBoC cut loan prime rate to support housing

        By
        ActionForex
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        China’s PBoC lowered the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 5bps to 3.65% today. The five-year LPR rate, which is used to price mortgages, was slashed by 15bps to 4.30%.

        The larger cut is the 5-year rate was seen as for addressing the problems in the housing markets. The asymmetry is also for giving additional boost to long-term financing demand.

        USD/CNH’s up trend from 6.3057 resumed last week by breaking through 6.8372 high. But that’s more about the broad based rally in Dollar than the weakness in Yuan. Anyway, the up trend could be heading towards 61.8% projection of 6.3057 to 6.8273 from 6.7159 at 7.0444 in the medium term next, that is, above 7 handle.

        RBNZ Hawkesby: Things will be evenly balanced once rates reach 4-4.25%

          By
          ActionForex
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          RBNZ Deputy Governor Christian Hawkesby said the strategy now is to get the cash rate “comfortably above neutral” to bring down core inflation. And, “that will afford us some breathing space to see how things are playing out.”

          “Once we get the OCR up into that 4%-4.25% level we’re seeing things evenly balanced from there,” he added. “So we’d put equal weight on having to put the OCR up as we would putting it down.”

          “The economy will evolve differently than our projections. There will be shocks that come along. There’ll be data that’s different than the forecast. And we’ll just keep coming back to what does it mean for our mandates,” Hawkesby said. “We certainly are projecting an environment where the economy cools.”

          Bundesbank Nagel: Further interest rate hikes must follow

            By
            ActionForex
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            Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel told Rheinischen Post, “the probability is rising that inflation will be higher than previously forecast and will average six point something next year.” That compares with Bundesbank’s prior projection of 4.5% inflation in 2023. “With the high inflation rates, further interest rate hikes must follow,”he added.

            Nagel also admitted that the German economy is “likely” to suffer a recession over winter, if energy crisis continues to deepen, as it’s among the most exposed to Russian gas disruptions.

            Canada retail sales rose 1.1% mom in Jun, core sales up 0.2% mom

              By
              ActionForex
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              Canada retail sales rose 1.1% mom to CAD 63.1B in June, above expectation of 0.4% mom. That’s also the sixth consecutive monthly increase. Sales were up in 8 of 11 subsectors, representing 76.8% of retail trade. Core retail sales, excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts, rose 0.2% mom.

              In the advance estimate, retail sales dropped -2.0% mom in July.

              Full release here.

              UK retail sales volume rose 0.3% mom in Jul

                By
                ActionForex
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                In volume term, UK retail sales rose 0.3% mom in July, better than expectation of -0.2% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.4% mom. Comparing to a year ago, retail sales dropped -3.4% yoy while ex-auto sales dropped -3.0% yoy.

                In value term, retail sales rose 1.3% mom, 7.8% yoy. Ex-auto sales rose 1.4% mom, 5.7% yoy.

                Full release here.

                UK Gfk consumer confidence drooped to -44, another record low

                  By
                  ActionForex
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                  UK Gfk consumer confidence dropped from -41 to -44 in August, hitting another record low. Personal financial situation over the next 12 months dropped from -26 to -31. General economic situation over the next 12 months dropped from -57 to -60, setting a new record low.

                  Joe Staton, Client Strategy Director, GfK says: “The Overall Index Score dropped three points in August to -44, the lowest since records began in 1974. All measures fell, reflecting acute concerns as the cost-of-living soars. A sense of exasperation about the UK’s economy is the biggest driver of these findings.”

                  Full release here.

                  New Zealand goods exports rose 16% yoy in Jul, imports rose 26% yoy

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    New Zealand goods exports rose 16% yoy to NZD 6.7B in July. Goods imports rose 26% yoy to NZD 7.8B. Trade deficit came in at NZD -1.1B, comparing expectation of NZD 105m surplus.

                    China led the monthly rise in exports, up 13%. Exports to Australia was down -1.1%, USA up 5.8%, EU up 7.5%, Japan up 18%. Imports from China was up 19%, EU up 3.0%, Australia up 16%, USA up 34%, and Japan up 54%.

                    Full release here.

                    Japan CPI core rose to 2.4% yoy, highest since 2014

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      Japan headline CPI rose from 2.4% yoy to 2.6% yoy in July, above expectation of 2.2% yoy. CPI core (all items ex-fresh food) rose from 2.2% yoy to 2.4% yoy, matched expectations. CPI core-core (all items ex-food, energy) rose from 1.0% yoy to 1.2% yoy, above expectations of 0.6% yoy.

                      Core inflation has now exceeded BoJ’s 2% target for four straight months, and hit the highest level since December 2014. The core-core reading was also the fastest since December 2015, while the headline reading was the strongest since 2008.

                      Both Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda have called for robust wage gains to ensure that inflation is sustainable. But the markets are expecting some pressure on the BoJ for acting on monetary policy if CPI hits 3%.

                      Fed Bullard: We should continue to move expeditiously on rates

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told WSJ, “we should continue to move expeditiously to a level of the policy rate that will put significant downward pressure on inflation” and “I don’t really see why you want to drag out interest rate increases into next year.”

                        Bullard also indicated that he backs another 75bps rate hike in September. He also reiterated he preference to have federal funds rate at 3.75-4.00% by the end of the year, from current 2.25-2.50%.

                        Fed George: Direction for rates pretty clear, but pace to be debated

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Kansas City Fed President Esther George said yesterday that “the case for continuing to raise rates remains strong” and “the direction is pretty clear”.

                          But, “the question of how fast that has to happen is something my colleagues and I will continue to debate,” she added.

                          “We have done a lot, and I think we have to be very mindful that our policy decisions often operate on a lag. We have to watch carefully how that’s coming through,” she warned.

                          US initial jobless claims dropped to 250k, below expectations

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            US initial jobless claims dropped -2k to 250k in the week ending August 13, below expectation of 261k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -2750 to 247k.

                            Continuing claims rose 7k to 1437k in the week ending August 6. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 13k to 1413.

                            Full release here.

                            ECB Schnabel: Our concerns was not alleviated after Jul 50bps hike

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said in an interview that there was a “strong indication that growth is going to slow”. She would not rule out a technical recession in Eurozone, “especially if energy supplies from Russia are disrupted further”. Downside risks also increased due to “additional supply-side shocks, caused by droughts or the low water levels in major rivers.”

                              Regarding inflation she said the increasing inflation rates are a “broad-based development”. “Inflationary pressures are likely to be with us for some time; they won’t vanish quickly,” she added. “I would not exclude that, in the short run, inflation is going to increase further…. it’s very difficult to predict when inflation is going to peak.”

                              Regarding September meeting, Schnabel said that “the concerns we had in July have not been alleviated”. Back in July, ECB raised interest rate by 50bps. “At the moment I do not think this outlook has changed fundamentally,” she added.

                              Full interview here.

                              Eurozone CPI finalized at 8.9% yoy in Jul, core CPI at 5.4% yoy

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Eurozone CPI was finalized at 8.9% yoy in July, comparing with June’s 8.6% yoy. CPI ex-energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco was finalized at 5.4% yoy (up from June’s 4.9% yoy). The highest contribution to the annual Eurozone inflation rate came from energy (+4.02%), followed by food, alcohol & tobacco (+2.08%), services (+1.60%) and non-energy industrial goods (+1.16%).

                                EU CPI was finalized at 9.8% yoy, up from June’s 9.6% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in France, Malta (both 6.8%) and Finland (8.0%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Estonia (23.2%), Latvia (21.3%) and Lithuania (20.9%). Compared with June, annual inflation fell in six Member States, remained stable in three and rose in eighteen.

                                Full release here.

                                Australia lost -40.9k jobs, but unemployment rate dropped to 3.4%

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  Australia employment contracted -40.9k in July, much worse than expectation of 25.0k growth. Full time jobs decreased by 86.9k while part time jobs rose 46k.

                                  Unemployment rate dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. Participation rate dropped notably from 66.8% to 55.4%. Monthly hours worked in all jobs dropped -16m hours, or -0.8% mom.

                                  “The fall in unemployment in July reflects an increasingly tight labour market, including high job vacancies and ongoing labour shortages, resulting in the lowest unemployment rate since August 1974,” Bjorn Jarvis, head of labour statistics at the ABS, said.

                                  Full release here.

                                  RBNZ Orr: Monetary policy was too loose for a period

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr told a parliamentary committee, “our core inflation is too high and that suggests at some point monetary policy was too loose for a period.”

                                    “I have already apologized for the current level of inflation. I have already said that the Reserve Bank was party to that,” he added.

                                    However, “the worst mistake we could be having would be fighting deflation, unnecessary unemployment and economic collapse,” he said. “We have ended up with the better problem — but it is a problem — which is inflation, core inflation of 4-6% that we need to put back in the bottle.”

                                    US retail sales rose 0.0% mom in Jul, ex-auto sales up 0.4% mom

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      US retail sales rose 0.0% mom to USD 682.8B in July, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.4% mom, above expectation of 0.1% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 0.2% mom. Ex-auto, gasoline sales rose 0.7% mom.

                                      Also total sales were up 10.3% yoy comparing with July 2021. Total sales for the May through July 2022 period were up 9.2% from the same period a year ago.

                                      Full release here.

                                      UK CPI jumped to 10.1% yoy in Jul, core CPI up to 6.2% yoy

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        UK CPI rose 0.6% mom in July, largest monthly rise between June and July since the start of the series in 1988. The food and non-alcoholic beverages, and transport divisions made the largest upward contributions.

                                        For the 12 month period, CPI accelerated from 9.4% yoy to 10.1% yoy, above expectation of 9.8% yoy. Indicative models suggest that CPI was last high in 1982, estimated at around 11%. Core CPI accelerated from 5.8% yoy to 6.2% yoy, below expectation of 6.4% yoy.

                                        Full CPI release here.

                                        RPI rose 0.9% mom, 12.3% yoy, versus expectation of 0.8% mom, 12.9% yoy. PPI input came in at 0.1% mom, 22.6% yoy, versus expectation of 1.0% mom, 24.8% yoy. PPI output was at 1.6% mom, 17.1% yoy, versus expectation of 1.6% mom, 17.6% yoy. PPI core output was at 1.0% mom, 14.6% yoy, versus expectation of 0.0% mom, 15.9% yoy.

                                        Japan export rose 19.0% yoy in Jul, imports rose 47.2% yoy

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          Japan exports rose 19.0% yoy to JPY 8753B in July, with gains led by auto shipments to US and chips to China. Imports rose 47.2% yoy to JPY 10190B, driven by higher costs of crude oil, coal and liquid natural gas. Trade deficit came in at JPY -1437B. July’s figure marked a full straight year of monthly trade deficits, the longest streak since the 32-month run to February 2015.

                                          In seasonally adjusted terms, exports rose 2.1% mom to JPY 8437B. Imports rose 3.5% mom to JPY 10570B. Trade deficit widened to JPY -2133B.

                                          Full release here.

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