Australia PMI composite dropped to 52.6, downside risks have increased

    Australia PMI Manufacturing ticked up from 55.7 to 55.8 in June. PMI Services, on the other hand, dropped from 53.2 to 52.6. PMI Composite dropped from 52.9 to 52.6, a 5-month low.

    Laura Denman, Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence said:

    “Expansion across Australia’s private sector economy continued in June, according to the S&P Global Flash Australia Composite PMI. The easing of COVID-19 policies and opening of international borders has encouraged growth in demand, especially overseas. Stronger demand conditions have had a positive influence on other areas of the economy, with employment levels continuing to rise at a solid rate.

    “That said, firms have taken advantage of rising demand levels and passed through higher costs to their selling prices at a substantial pace. With interest rates rising to contain rapid price pressures, as well as a fading boost to economic activity post-lockdown, downside risks to the Australian economy have increased.”

    Full release here.

    Fed Evans: Another 75bps hike in line with strong concerns on inflation

      Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said another 75bps rate hike is a “very reasonable place” to have a discussion at next FOMC meeting. He said, “I think 75 would be in line with continued strong concerns that the inflation data isn’t coming down as quickly as we thought.”

      “The first thing that we’re looking at is to make sure we take the steam out of the inflation pressures,” he added.

      “We’re obviously taking on risk when we want to slow demand, to keep it in line with supply,” Evans said. “To think that we can fine tune something like this with tremendous precision — I mean, we just don’t have that ability.”

      Fed Harker: I’d like to get above 3%

        Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said interest rates should go above 3% by the end of the year. Then Fed would assess how much more tightening is needed to bring inflation down.

        “We don’t have to overreact in terms of the fed funds rate,” Harker said during a conference held by the regional Federal Reserve bank. “We need to get above neutral, again I’d like to get above three, but I don’t think you have to accelerate rapidly beyond that at this point until we get a better understanding of what exactly the quantitative tightening is doing.”

        Fed Harker not ready to make a final decision on the next hike

          Philadelphia Fed’s Harker said he’s “not ready to make a final decision” on the next rate hike yet.

          “If we start to see demand soften — and we are seeing some signs that demand is starting to soften in certain sectors of the economy. And if it’s softening quicker than I anticipate, then it may be appropriate to go with a 50,” he added. “If it’s not, then it’s probably appropriate to go with the 75. But let’s see how the data turns out in the next few weeks.”

          “I think we’ve been very clear that we need to move to a restrictive stance,” he said. “How we get there is dependent on the data. So we can’t be that precise, [with] what we’re going to be doing in September or December right now. I mean, the data will dictate that.”

          Fed Powell: Ongoing rate increases will be appropriate

            In the prepared remarks for his semi annual testimony to Congress, Fed chair Jerome Powell said, “over coming months, we will be looking for compelling evidence that inflation is moving down”.

            “We anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate; the pace of those changes will continue to depend on the incoming data and the evolving outlook for the economy”, he added. The decisions will be made “meeting by meeting.

            Full remarks here.

            Canada CPI rose to 7.7% yoy in May, highest since 1983

              Canada CPI accelerated from 7.7% yoy to 6.8% yoy in May, above expectation of 7.5% yoy. That’s the highest reading since January 1983. The monthly rise 1.4% mom was the fastest since introduction of the series in 1992. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 6.3% yoy, up from April’s 5.8% yoy.

              CPI common rose from 3.5% yoy to 3.9% yoy, above expectation of 3.4% yoy. CPI median rose from 4.6% yoy to 4.9% yoy, above expectation of 4.7% yoy. CPI trimmed rose from 5.2% yoy to 5.4% yoy, matched expectations.

              Full release here.

               

              ECB de Guindos: Fragmentation instruments should not interfere with monetary policy approach

                ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos said today “fragmentation is a significant worry.” The central bank is ” speeding up process to ready a tool against fragmentation,” but the governing council has “still not discussed the details yet”.

                But he emphasized, “fragmentation instruments should not interfere with the overall monetary policy approach, which should be focused on fighting inflation.” Also, the new tool should be different to previous PEPP, APP or OMT programs as “circumstances are not the same.

                UK CPI rose to 9.1% yoy in May, another 40-yr high

                  UK CPI accelerated further from 9.0% yoy to 9.1% yoy in May, matched expectations. That’s another record high since the series began in 1997. Also, based on indicate model, it’s the highest since around 1982, which was at nearly 11% yoy. CPI core, on the other hand, slowed from 6.2% yoy to 5.9% yoy, below expectation of 6.0% yoy.

                  ONS said: “Rising prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, compared with falls a year ago, resulted in the largest upward contribution to the change in both the CPIH and CPI 12-month inflation rates between April and May 2022 (0.17 percentage points for CPIH). The largest offsetting downward contributions to change in the rates were from recreation and culture (0.10 percentage points for CPIH) and clothing and footwear (0.08 percentage points for CPIH).

                  Full release here.

                  Also released PPI input came in at 2.1% mom, 22.1% yoy in May. PPI output was at 1.6% mom, 15.7% yoy. PPI output core was at 1.50% mom, 14.8% yoy.

                  Australia Westpac leading index dropped to 0.58 in May

                    Australia Westpac leading index dropped from 1.09% to 0.58% in May, still indicating above trend growth for 2022. Westpac said, “the components of the Index are indicating an important emerging theme around Australia’s growth prospects – a significant shock to consumer confidence.”

                    On RBA policy, Westpac expects the central bank to hike a further 50bps in July. It assessed that at 1.35% after the hike, interest rate is still below the neutral setting. Given the tight labor market and rising inflation, further monetary tightening can be expected through 2022.

                    Full release here.

                    New Zealand goods exports rose 18% yoy in May, imports rose 24% yoy

                      New Zealand goods exports rose 18% yoy or NZD 1.1B to NZD 7.0B in May. Goods imports rose 24% yoy or NZD 1.3B to NZD 6.7B. Monthly trade surplus narrowed from NZD 440m to NZD 263m, smaller than expectation of NZD 580m.

                      Exports to all top destinations rose except to China: China (down -3.8%), Australia (up 49%), US (up 18%), EU (up 23%), Japan (up 0.7%).

                      Imports from most partners rose except from the US: China (up 25%), EU (up 12%), Australia (up 18%), US (down -5.5%), Japan (up 41%).

                      Full release here.

                      BoJ firm on maintaining ultra-loose monetary policy

                        In the minutes of April 27-28 meeting of BoJ indicated that while the board was concerned with fluctuation in Yen’s exchange rate, it remained firm on the stance to continue with ultra-loose monetary policy.

                        One board member noted that Japan’s economy was “still on its way to recovery”. As a “commodity importer”, the rise in commodity prices would “lead to an outflow of income from Japan and thus exert downward pressure on the economy.” Hence, it’s “necessary” to “continue with the current powerful monetary easing and thereby firmly support the economy.”

                        Another member noted that “the challenge of monetary policy in Japan was not to curb inflation, as in the case of the United States and Europe, but to overcome inflation that was still too low”. A different member commented that,” with the addition of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to the existing downside risks to the economy, the situation had further changed significantly; against this backdrop, it was not appropriate for the Bank to make any big changes to its monetary policy stance.”

                        Regarding Yen’s depreciation, “a few members said excessive fluctuations in the foreign exchange market over a short period of time, such as those observed recently, would raise uncertainties about the future and make it more difficult for firms to formulate their business plans”.

                        Some member noted, “it was necessary for the Bank to clearly communicate to the public that the aim of monetary policy conduct was to fulfill its mandate of achieving price stability, rather than to control foreign exchange rates.”

                        Full minutes here.

                        Canada retail sales up 0.9% mom in Apr, to rise 1.6% mom in May

                          Canada retail sales rose 0.9% mom to CAD 60.7B in April, slightly above expectation of 0.8% mom. Sales were up in 6 of 11 subsectors. Excluding gasoline stations and motor vehicle and parts dealers, sales rose 1.0% mom.

                          Preliminary data suggests that sales rose 1.6% mom in May.

                          Full release here.

                          ECB Rehn: Sharply rising inflation justifies expedite policy normalization

                            ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn said, “with inflation rising sharply, there has been good reason to expedite the normalization of monetary policy,”

                            “The impacts of Russia’s brutal war are being felt around the world, and people are having to pay higher prices for energy and food,” he said.

                            BoE Pill sees tightening of monetary policy over the coming months

                              BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said today, “we will do what we need to do to get inflation back to target. And at least in my view, that will require further tightening of monetary policy over the coming months.”

                              “When we assess inflation pressure, we need to take into account the exchange rate,” he added. “We see ourselves as steering a narrow path between persistent inflation pressure and recession.”

                              “Terms of trade shock means UK will be poorer, UK must decide how that reduction in income will be distributed.”

                              Japan PM Kishida and opposition Tamaki agree BoJ to keep loose monetary policy

                                Japan Prime Minister Fumio Kishida asked opposition DDP’s Yuichiro Tamaki on monetary policy. Tamaki said the BOJ must keep current ultra-low interest rates, arguing that tightening monetary policy was “unthinkable”. Kishida said afterwards, “I agree with you on the point that Japan shouldn’t alter monetary policy.”

                                Kishida also said, “monetary policy affects not just currency rates, but the economy and smaller firms’ businesses. Such factors must be taken into account comprehensively.”

                                Separately, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said, “I’m concerned about the rapid yen weakening seen recently.” He added that the government will “closely liaise” with BoJ on watching the exchange markets with “even greater sense of urgency”. “We will respond appropriately if necessary while keeping close communication with currency authorities from other countries,” Suzuki said.

                                RBA Lowe: Going to be some years before inflation back in target range

                                  RBA Governor Philip Lowe said the larger than expected 50bps hike at last meeting was driven by “additional information suggesting a further upward revision to an already high inflation forecast”.

                                  He also emphasized, “as we chart our way back to 2 per cent to 3 per cent inflation, Australians should be prepared for more interest rate increases.”

                                  “In the next month or so, we’ll be doing a full forecast update, but it’s going to be some years, I think, before inflation is back in the 2-3 per cent range, he added.

                                  “I don’t see a recession on the horizon,” Lowe said. “If the last two years has taught us anything, it’s that you can’t rule anything out. But our fundamentals are strong, the position of the household sector is strong, and firms are wanting to hire people at record rates. It doesn’t feel like a precursor to a recession,” he said.

                                  New Zealand Westpac consumer confidence dropped to 78.7 in Q2, record low

                                    New Zealand Westpac consumer confidence dropped sharply from 92.1 to 78.7 in Q2. That’s the lowest level on record, and well below long-term average at 110.2.

                                    Westpac said: “The pressure on household finances and sharp fall in confidence reinforces our expectations for a downturn in household spending – and economic growth more generally – over the coming months”.

                                    “The RBNZ’s own projections show the cash rate rising to 3.9%, while financial markets have started to price in the chance that it could go as high as 4.5%…

                                    “If there is a more abrupt slowdown in spending than the RBNZ anticipates, then it’s likely that increases in the cash rate will be more measured.”

                                    Full release here.

                                    ECB Lane: Initial policy normalization steps clear and robust

                                      ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane said yesterday, “we have very high inflation rates now, and clearly we could be in a world where inflation psychology is taking hold.”

                                      In a presentation, he said that Eurozone is facing three inflation shocks: pandemic cycle, energy shock and Russia-Ukraine war. Risks to inflation outlook include catch-up adjustment in wages, re-set of long term inflation expectations, inflation psychology, downward revision in potential output, and rise in real interest rate.

                                      He added that monetary policy normalization is “appropriate” with “clear and robust” initial steps. That is, ECB will be stopping asset purchases, raise interest rate by 25bps in July, and again in September. Though, the size of the September hike is undecided. As for further steps, they will be state-contingent (gradualism, optionality, flexibility, data-dependency)

                                      Full presentation here.

                                      BoE Mann: Robust policy move reduces risk of further inflation further boosted by Sterling depreciation

                                        BoE MPC member Catherine Mann explained in a speech that her for a 50bps last week. She said, ” a more robust policy move, based on both domestic conjuncture and commensurate with the global factor, reduces the risk that domestic inflation already embedded is further boosted by inflation imported via a Sterling depreciation.”

                                        She’s open to a policy rate reversal in the medium term “when the domestic supports to demand fade and when weakness in external sources of demand bite.”

                                        She said, “the domestic conjunctural situation is characterized by very high inflation and various supports to consumer purchasing power relative to real income”. The support factors include “two fiscal packages, strong employment, wide-spread bonuses as well as robust wage growth, strong housing values, accumulated savings, quality trade-down, and borrowing through credit cards among other schemes.”

                                        Globally, tightening by Fed and ECB suggests depreciation pressure on Sterling that could “add to inflation particularly in the near term”.

                                        Full speech here.

                                        ECB Lagarde: Larger than 25bps hike appropriate in Sep if MT inflation outlook persists or deteriorates

                                          In a European Parliament committee hearing, ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated the policy decision made at June meeting, including ending the asset purchase program, scheduling to raise interest rate by 25bps in July, and to raise interest rates again in September.

                                          As for the September hike, “if the medium-term inflation outlook persists or deteriorates, a larger increment (than 25bps) will be appropriate.”

                                          Beyond September, ECB anticipates that “a gradual but sustained path of further increases in interest rates will be appropriate”, depending on incoming data.

                                          Full remarks here.