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US retail sales rose 3.8% mom in Jan, ex-auto sales up 3.3% mom

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    ActionForex.com
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    US retail sales rose 3.8% mom to USD 649.8B in January above expectation of 1.8% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 3.3% mom, above expectation of 1.0% mom. Ex-gasoline sales rose 4.2% mom. Ex-auto, ex-gasoline sales rose 3.8% mom. Retail trade rose 4.4% mom.

    Total sales for November 21 through January 2022 period were up 16.1% from the same period a year ago.

    Full release here.

    Canada CPI jumped to 5.1% yoy in Jan, highest since 1991

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      ActionForex.com
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      Canada CPI jumped from 4.8% yoy to 5.1% yoy in January, above expectation of 4.8% yoy. Also, inflation surpassed 5% for the first time since September 1991. On monthly basis, CPI rose 0.9% mom, above expectation of 0.6% mom, highest since January 2017.

      Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 4.3% yoy, highest since the introduction of the index in 1999. Prices for services was unchanged at 3.4% yoy. Prices for goods accelerated from 6.8% yoy to 7.2% yoy.

      CPI common rose from 2.1% yoy to 2.3% yoy, above expectation of 2.1% yoy. CPI median rose from 3.1% yoy to 3.3% yoy, above expectation of 3.1% yoy. CPI trimmed rose from 3.8% yoy to 4.0% yoy, above expectation of 3.7% yoy.

      Full release here.

      Eurozone industrial production rose 1.2% mom in Dec, EU up 0.7% mom

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        ActionForex.com
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        Eurozone industrial production rose 1.2% mom in December, well above expectation of 0.3% mom. Production of capital goods rose by 2.6%, intermediate goods by 0.5% and non-durable consumer goods by 0.4%, while production of durable consumer goods fell by -0.3% and energy by -0.8%.

        EU industrial production rose 0.7% mom. Among Member States for which data are available, the largest monthly increases were registered in Ireland (+10.3%), Lithuania (+6.2%) and Luxembourg (+5.1%). The highest decreases were observed in Czechia (-2.9%), Austria (-1.1%) and Italy (-1.0%).

        Full release here.

        BoJ Kuroda: Basic approach to allow 10-yr JGB yield to move 25 bps up-down 0%

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          ActionForex.com
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          Speaking in the parliament, BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said there is no plan to change the band for 10-year JGB yield to fluctuate in. He added, “our basic approach is to buy a sufficient amount of bonds to allow 10-year JGB to move 25 basis points up and down each around our 0% target.”

          “How much JGB BoJ will buy to defend its yield target depends on market conditions at the time,” he said. “BoJ’s fixed-rate bond-buying offer was made in light of such unusual market situation. If market conditions become unusual again, BoJ will of course use tools such as fixed-rate market operation.”

          UK CPI rose to 5.5% yoy in Jan, highest since 1992

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            ActionForex.com
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            UK CPI rose further from 5.4% yoy to 5.5% yoy in January, matched expectations. That’s the highest level in the National Statistics series since January 1997. It was last higher in the historical modelled series in March 1992, which as at 7.1%. CPI core rose from 4.2% yoy to 4.3% yoy, above expectation of 4.3% yoy.

            Full CPI release.

            Also released, PPI input came in at 0.9% mom, 13.6% yoy, versus expectation of 0.7% mom, 14.2% yoy. PPI output was at 1.2% mom, 9.9% yoy, versus expectation of 0.6% mom, 9.4% yoy. PPI output core was at 1.1% mom, 0.7% yoy, versus expectation of 0.7% mom, 9.0% yoy.

            Australia Westpac leading index turned positive, signalling above trend growth

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              ActionForex.com
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              Australia Westpac-Melbourne Institute leading index rose from -0.1% to 0.4% in December. That’s the first positive, above trend, read on the since Since Delta outbreak last August. The index signalled that growth outlook has improved with above trend growth over the next three to nine months.

              Westpac expects contraction in spending in January due to Omicron, and zero growth in GDP in Q1. But the economy is expected to bounce back strongly over the rest of 2022, with a solid 5.5% growth for the year overall.

              Westpac also continues to expect interest rate hike by RBA before August meeting.

              Full release here.

              ECB Schnabel: We should start thinking about gradual normalization of policy

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                ActionForex.com
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                ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel said in an interview, ” it has become increasingly likely that inflation is going to stabilise around our 2 per cent target over the medium term.” There, “we should start thinking about a gradual normalization of our policy.”

                “With the most recent data, however, the risk of acting too late has increased and therefore we need a careful reassessment of the inflation outlook,” she added.

                Schnabel also pointed to a “demand component” in inflation in rising wages, in addition to energy prices and supply chain bottlenecks. She added, “we cannot simply look through everything, especially if inflation now becomes more broad-based and more persistent than we originally thought.”

                Full interview here.

                ECB Villeroy: Any speculation about calendar of rate lift-off is premature

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                  ActionForex.com
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                  ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau, useful to have some transition between” the end of emergency PEPP purchases and the regular APP purchases. However, “this reduction could follow a bi-monthly or monthly pace instead of a quarterly one, and APP purchases could therefore end in the third quarter, at some point to be discussed,”

                  Villeroy also noted current guidance indicated interest rate hikes would come “shortly” after ending asset purchases. But the central bank would have “more scope for fine-tuning” by removing the word “shortly.”

                  “This would be a possibility to break the quasi-automatic temporal link between the two instruments whilst retaining the sequencing,” he said. “Optionality would mean that the lift-off could possibly take more time, if warranted.”

                  “We could give ourselves more time and consider the latest inflation outlook before deciding about the calendar of rate hikes – a decision that anyway we don’t need to make before our June meeting,” Villeroy said. “Any speculation about this calendar of future lift-off is at this stage premature.”

                  WTI oil and gold pare gains on Russia-Ukraine de-escalation

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                    ActionForex.com
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                    WTI crude oil tumbles sharply today on de-escalation in Russia-Ukraine situation. Technically, a short term top should be in place at 95.98. Immediate focus is now on 55 day EMA (now at 91.18). Sustained trading below this level will argue that WTI is already in correction to whole rally from 66.46. In this case, deeper correction would be seen through 88.66 support to 38.2% retracement of 66.46 to 95.98 at 84.70, which is inside 82.42/87.70 support zone, and then be close to 55 day EMA.

                    Gold of also retreated sharply from 1879.24, after failing to sustain above 1877.05 resistance. The development dampened the immediate bullish case, and some consolidations could be seen first. But further rally will remain in favor as long as 1820.72 support holds. Break of 1879.24 will resume the rise from 1752.12, and that from 1682.60. Next target is 1916.30 resistance, and then 100% projection of 1682.60 to 1877.05 from 1752.12 at 1946.57.

                    US PPI rose 1% mom, 9.7% yoy in Jan

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                      ActionForex.com
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                      US PPI for final demand rose 1.0% mom in January, above expectation of 0.6% mom. PPI for final demand services rose 0.7% mom. PPI for final demand goods rose 1.3% mom. For the 12-month period, PPI was unchanged at 9.7% yoy, above expectation of 9.2% yoy.

                      Excluding foods, energy and trade services, PPI rose 0.9% mom, largest since January 2021. For the 12-monht period, PPI less foods, energy, and trade services rose 6.9% yoy.

                      Full release here.

                      Germany ZEW rose to 54.3, outlook continues to improve despite growing economic and political uncertainties

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                        ActionForex.com
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                        Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment rose from 51.7 to 54.3 in February, above expectation of 53.5. Current Situation index rose from -10.2 to -8.1, worse than expectation of -7.0.

                        Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment dropped from 49.4 to 48.6, below expectation of 52.3. Current Situation Index rose 6.8 to 0.6. Inflation expectations for Eurozone rose 3.6 pts to -35.1. 53.2% of expects expect inflation rate to decline in the next six months.

                        “The economic outlook for Germany continues to improve in February despite growing economic and political uncertainties. Financial market experts expect an easing of pandemic-related restrictions and an economic recovery in the first half of 2022. They still expect inflation to decline, albeit at a slower pace and from a higher level than in previous months. Consequently, more than 50 per cent of the experts now predict that short-term interest rates in the euro area will rise in the next six months,” comments ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach on current expectations.

                        Full release here.

                        Eurozone exports rose 14.1% yoy in Dec, imports rose 36.7% yoy

                          By
                          ActionForex.com
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                          Eurozone exports of goods to the rest of the world grew 14.1% yoy to EUR 218.7B in December. Imports rose 36.7% yoy to EUR 223.3B. Trade deficit came in at EUR -4.6B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 27.8% yoy to EUR 191.9B.

                          In seasonally adjusted terms, exports dropped -0.6% mom while imports rose EUR 3.1% mom. Trade deficit was at EUR -9.7B, larger than expectation of EUR -2.5B.

                          For whole of 2021, exports rose 14.1% to EUR 2434.4B. Imports rose 21.4% to EUR 2305.9B. Trade surplus came in at EUR 128.4B, down from EUR 233.9B in 2020.

                          Full release here.

                          Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% qoq in Q4, EU up 0.4% qoq

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                            ActionForex.com
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                            Eurozone GDP grew 0.3% qoq, 4.6% yoy in Q4. Annual growth 2021 was at 5.2%. Employment rose 0.5% qoq.

                            EU GDP grew 0.4% qoq, 4.8% yoy. Annual growth 2021 was at 5.2%. Employment grew 0.5% qoq.

                            Full release here.

                            UK payrolled employees rose 108k in Jan, unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% in Dec

                              By
                              ActionForex.com
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                              UK payrolled employees rose 0.4% mom, or 108k, to 29.5m in January. Over the year, payrolled employees grew 4.8% yoy, or 1.35m. Claimant count dropped -31.9k.

                              In the three months to December, unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1%, matched expectations. That’s still 0.1% higher than before the pandemic, but down -0.2% from the previous three-month period. Employment rate rose 0.1% to 75.5%, comparing to the previous 3-month period.

                              Average earnings including bonus rose 4.3% 3moy, much better than expectation of 3.9%. Average earnings excluding bonus rose 3.7% 3moy, above better than expectation of 3.6%.

                              Full release here.

                              Gold upside breakout, ready for 1916 resistance

                                By
                                ActionForex.com
                                -

                                Gold rises further to as high as 1878.84 so far today. The break of 1877.05 resistance indicates resumption of whole rally from 1682.60. Further rally will be expected as long as 1850.63 support holds. 1916.30 resistance is the next target and break there will pave the way to 100% projection of 1682.60 to 1877.05 from 1752.12 at 1946.57.

                                More importantly, sustained break of 1946.57 will affirm the case that whole medium term correction from 2074.84 has completed at 1682.60, after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1046.27 to 2074.84. That is, retest of 2074.84 should be seen next with prospect of resuming the long term up trend at a later stage.

                                RBA minutes: Prepared to be patient on interest rate

                                  By
                                  ActionForex.com
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                                  In the minutes of February 1 meeting, RBA reiterated that it “will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target band.” It’s “too early to conclude that it was sustainably within the target band”. There were uncertainties about “how persistent the pick-up in inflation would be as supply-side problems were resolved” and “wages growth also remained modest”. The central bank is “prepared to be patient”.

                                  Omicron outbreak “had affected the economy, but had not derailed the recovery”. The economy was “resilient” and was expected to “pick up as case numbers trended lower”. Job market had “recovered strongly” with central forecasts seeing unemployment to fall to “levels not seen since early 1970s”. Wages growth was expected to pick-up, buy only gradually.

                                  Inflation had “picked up more quickly than the Bank had expected”, but was still “lower than in many other countries”. “Some moderation” in inflation was expected as “supply problems were resolved.” Stronger growth in labour costs was expected to become the “more important driver of inflation”. The central forecast was for underlying inflation to be within the target band over both 2022 and 2023.

                                  A decision about reinvestment of asset purchases would be made at the May meeting, with the key considerations being the “state of the economy and the outlook for inflation and unemployment.”

                                  Full minutes here.

                                  Japan GDP grew 1.3% qoq in Q4, remains slightly be pre-pandemic level

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                                    ActionForex.com
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                                    Japan GDP grew 1.3% qoq in Q4, slightly below expectation of 1.4% qoq. In annualized term, GDP grew 5.4%, below expectation of 5.8%.

                                    Private consumption grew 2.7% qoq, accounting for much of the growth. Capital expenditure rose 0.4% qoq. External demand rose 0.2% qoq.

                                    For 2021 as a whole, GDP grew 1.7%, marking the first expansion in three years. The seasonally-adjusted real GDP size at JPY 541T remains slightly below pre-pandemic level of late 2019.

                                    BoJ Kuroda: Baseline for economy and prices to gradually pick up

                                      By
                                      ActionForex.com
                                      -

                                      BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda reiterated that the baseline forecast is for Japan’s economy and prices to gradually pick up as rising real household income underpins consumption. Nevertheless, the “economic and price conditions warrant maintaining our easy monetary policy.”

                                      He acknowledged that the market operation of an offer to buy unlimited amount of bonds on Monday successfully pushed 10-year JGB yield from near 0.25% to 0.22%. But he emphasized it’s a “last resort” and a “powerful means not used explicitly by other central banks.” “We don’t expect to conduct such operation frequently. We’ll do this as needed,” he added.

                                      Fed Bullard: We need to front-load more of our planned removal of accommodation

                                        By
                                        ActionForex.com
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                                        St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC today, “we need to front-load more of our planned removal of accommodation than we would have previously. We’ve been surprised to the upside on inflation. This is a lot of inflation.”

                                        “Our credibility is on the line here and we do have to react to the data,” he added. “However, I do think we can do it in a way that’s organized and not disruptive to markets.” Bullard added that Fed should raise interest rate by a full percent point by July. “I think my position is a good one, and I’ll try to convince my colleagues that it’s a good one,” he said.

                                        Regarding the 7.5% consumer inflation rate in January, Bullard said, “my interpretation was not so much that report alone, but the last four reports taken in tandem have indicated that inflation is broadening and possibly accelerating in the U.S. economy,”

                                        “The inflation that we’re seeing is very bad for low- and moderate-income households,” he said. “People are unhappy, consumer confidence is declining. This is not a good situation. We have to reassure people that we’re going to defend our inflation target and we’re going to get back to 2%.”

                                        Fed George: We have got to get to neutral really fast

                                          By
                                          ActionForex.com
                                          -

                                          In a WSJ interview, Kansas City Fed Esther George said that with inflation at at 7.5% in January, and the benchmark interest a rate near zero, Fed’s policy is “out of sync”. But she said it’s too soon to say if Fed should hike by 50bps in March. She also hasn’t form a view on how much interest rate has to go up this year.

                                          “What we have to do is be systematic,” George said. “It is always preferable to go gradual…Given where we are, the uncertainties around the pandemic effects and other things, I’d be hard-pressed to say we have got to get to neutral really fast.”

                                          “If we get to March and the data says we should be talking about that [a half-point rate increase], I’m sure that will be in play, but I’m not sure that is the answer, per se, to how we get there,” George added.

                                          She also dismissed the idea of holding an emergency FOMC meeting to raise interest rate. “I don’t know that I’d call the markets reacting to data an emergency here, because frankly, in my own forecast of looking where inflation was moving, the print was not a surprise,” she said.

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