Eurozone exports rose 18.9% yoy in Jan, imports rose 44.3% yoy

    Eurozone goods exports rose 18.9% yoy to EUR 199.5B in January. Imports rose 44.3% yoy to EUR 226.7B. Trade deficit reached EUR -27.2B. Intra Eurozone trade rose 24.2% yoy to EUR 192.3B.

    In seasonally adjusted terms, exports rose 3.4% mom to EUR 220.3B. Imports rose 2.3% mom to 228.0B. Trade deficit narrowed from EUR -9.7B to EUR -7.7B. Intra-Eurozone trade dropped from EUR 202.0B to EUR 198.7B.

    Full release here.

    WTI crude oil back above 106, first leg of correction finished

      WTI crude oil is back at 106 as rebound from 93.98 extends. Russia is showing no sign of stopping its invasion of Ukraine despite waves of sanctions and rounds of negotiations. Earlier this week, the International Energy Agency warned that 3 million barrels per day of Russia oil and products could be shut in from as early as six months.

      Technically, a short term bottom should be formed at 93.98 in WTI. The fall from 131.82, as the first leg of a corrective pattern should have completed. Further rise should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 131.82 to 93.98 at 108.43 first. Firm break there will target 61.8% retracement at 117.36 and above.

      Also, with notable support seen from 55 day EMA, the medium term outlook stays bullish. That is, larger up trend is still in favor to extend through 131.82 high. However, it would take a while, most likely with at least one more falling leg, before the corrective pattern from 131.82 completes.

      DOW breaks near term resistance, correction finished?

        DOW’s strong break of 34179.07 resistance overnight was a clear near term bullish signal. The development suggests that correction from 36952.65 has completed with three waves down to 32272.64. A weekly close above near term falling channel resistance (now at around 34700) will solidify this case, and bring further rally to 35824.28 resistance next week.

        At the same time, break of corresponding resistance of 4416.78 in S&P 500, and 13837.58 resistance in NASDQ, will also solidify overall near term bullish reversal in US stock markets.

        BoJ stands pat, extremely high uncertainties surrounding impact from Ukraine

          BoJ kept monetary policy unchanged as widely expected today. Under the yield curve control frame work, short-term policy interest rate is held at -0.10%. As for long-term interest rate, BoJ will continue to purchases JGBs, without upper limit, to maintain 10-year JGB yield at around 0%. The decision was made by 8-1 vote, with Goushi Kataoka dissented again, preferring to strength monetary easing.

          In the accompany statement, BoJ said the “economy has picked up as a trend, although some weakness has been seen in part”. Exports and industrial production “have continued to increase as a trend, despite the remaining effects of supply-side constraints.”

          Core inflation is “likely to increase clearly in positive territory for the time being due to a significant rise in energy prices, a pass-through of raw material cost increases, and dissipation of the effects of the reduction in mobile phone charges”.

          BoJ also said, “there are extremely high uncertainties over how the situation surrounding Ukraine will affect Japan’s economic activity and prices, mainly through developments in global financial and capital markets, commodity prices, and overseas economies.”

          Full statement here.

          US initial jobless claims dropped to 214k, continuing claims dropped to 1.419m

            US initial jobless claims dropped -15k to 214k in the week ending March 12, better than expectation of 221k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -9k to 223k.

            Continuing claims dropped -71k to 1419k in the week ending March 5, lowest since February 21, 1970. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -42.5k to 1463k, lowest since March 21, 1970.

            Full release here.

            ECB Knot: Normalization the appropriate response with dominant worry in inflation

              ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said, “At this point, the dominant worry is inflation. That is why normalization of policy, the withdrawal of stimulus is the appropriate policy response.”

              He expected the asset purchases to end by the end of the year. “That means September should be available (for a rate hike),” Knot said. “Not that I expect rates will have to go up in September.”

              “A rate hike in the fourth quarter to me still is a realistic expectation… but by no means a certainty, he added.

              BoE raises bank rate to 0.75%, but Cunliffe voted for no change

                BoE raises Bank Rate by 25bps to 0.75% as widely expected. But surprisingly, it was done by a 8-1 vote, with Jon Cunliffe voting for no change at 0.50%. In the statement, BoE said, “some further modest tightening in monetary policy may be appropriate in the coming months, but there are risks on both sides of that judgement depending on how medium-term prospects for inflation evolve.”

                “The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has led to further large increases in energy and other commodity prices,” BoE said. “Global inflationary pressures will strengthen considerably further over coming months, while growth in economies that are net energy importers, including the United Kingdom, is likely to slow.”

                Full statement here.

                ECB Lagarde: Inflation to exceed 7% this year in severe scenario

                  ECB President Christine Lagarde said in a speech the central has given itself some “extra space” in monetary policy by stating that rate hike will come only “some time” after ending net asset purchases.

                  “This maintains our traditional sequencing logic, but also gives us extra space if needed after we stop purchasing bonds and before we take the next step towards normalization,” she said. “This will allow us to test whether the convergence of inflation to our target that we project today is robust to current and potential new shocks,”

                  Lagarde also said the outbreak of war has ” introduced new uncertainty into the outlook”, with ” the short-term factors pushing up inflation are likely to be amplified.” Inflation out hit 5.1% on average hits year, and even exceed 7% in the “severe scenario”.

                  Full speech here.

                  Eurozone CPI finalized at 5.9% yoy in Feb, EU at 6.2% yoy

                    Eurozone CPI was finalized at 5.9% yoy in February, up from January’s 5.1% yoy. The highest contribution to the annual euro area inflation rate came from energy (+3.12%), followed by services (+1.04%), food, alcohol & tobacco (+0.90%) and non-energy industrial goods (+0.81%).

                    EU CPI was finalized at 6.2% yoy, up from January’s 5.6% yoy. The lowest annual rates were registered in Malta, France (both 4.2%), Portugal, Finland and Sweden (all 4.4%). The highest annual rates were recorded in Lithuania (14.0%), Estonia (11.6%) and Czechia (10.0%). Compared with January, annual inflation fell in two Member States and rose in twenty-five.

                    Full release here.

                    BoE to continue tightening today, GBP/CHF extending rebound

                      BoE is widely expected to raise the Bank rate again by 25bps to 0.75% today. The main focus is the voting. Last time, a slim majority of five MPC members won the vote and hiked only 25bps. Four members had indeed voted for a 50bps hike.

                      With Russia invasion of Ukraine, inflation would likely stay higher for longer, and might even peak above BoE’s own projection of 7.25% in April. Policy makers are clearly getting more alerted on the outlook and some might push for front-loading the rate hikes. But others could prefer to wait for new economic projections in May before acting more aggressively. The voting would reveal the balance inside MPC.

                      Here are some previews:

                      GBP/CHF rebounded quickly after war triggered selloff. A short term bottom is in place at 1.2112 and further rally is expected as long as 1.2255 minor support holds. But a strong break of 1.2598 resistance is needed to confirm completion of the down trend from 1.3070. Otherwise, medium term outlook will be neutral at best, with prospect of another fall through 1.2112.

                      AUD/JPY uptrend resumes, follows CAD/JPY

                        AUD/JPY rises to as high as 87.05 today, following broad based selloff in Yen. The break of 86.24 high confirms resumption of larger up trend from 59.85 (2020 low). The next near term target is 161.8% projection of 78.77 to 84.27 from 80.34 at 89.23, which is close to 90.29 long term resistance.

                        In the bigger picture, the whole down trend from 105.42 (2013 high) has completed with three waves down to 59.85. The support from 55 week EMA was a medium term bullish sign, and argues that AUD/JPY is reversing the whole down trend from 105.42. Sustained break of 90.29 would confirm this case and target 105.42 again.

                        CAD/JPY’s picture is similar. It’s now extending the up trend from from 73.80, (2020 low). Break of 100% projection of 87.42 to 92.16 from 89.21 at 93.95 should pave the way to 161.8% projection at 96.87 next.

                        The down trend from 106.38 (2014 high) has completed with three waves down to 73.80. 91.62 key resistance has been taken out already (corresponding to 90.29 in AUD/JPY). Further rally is now expected as long as 89.;21 support holds, towards 106.48 high.

                        Australia employment rose 77.4k in Feb, unemployment rate dropped to 4%

                          Australia employment grew 77.4k in February, nearly double of expectation of 40.0k. Full-time jobs rose 121.9k while part-time jobs dropped -44.5k. Employment was around 202k above pre-Delta high of June 2021.

                          Unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.0%, better than expectation of 4.1%. That’s the lowest level since August 2008. Participation rate rose 0.2% to 66.2%. Monthly hours worked rose 8.9%, or 149m, to 1813m hours.

                          Full release here.

                          BoJ Kuroda: Too early to debate specifics on stimulus exit

                            BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda told the parliament today, “it will take more time to achieve our 2% inflation target in a stable manner, so it’s too early to debate specifics on how to exit from easy policy.”

                            Core consumer inflation in Japan is generally expected to climb up in the months ahead, with prospect of hitting the 2% target. But Kuroda talked down the significance of such development. “I don’t think Japan is in a condition where inflation stably hits 2%, even when the impact of cellphone fee cuts taper off and energy prices rise further,” he said.

                            Kuroda just reiterated that BoJ will consider stimulus exit when 2% inflation is achieved. And, “in doing so, we will guide monetary policy to ensure markets including those for Japanese government bonds remain stable.”

                            S&P 500 eyes 34179 resistance after post FOMC rebound

                              Markets responded rather well to Fed’s rate hike, statement and new economic projections. In short, Fed raised federal funds rate target by 25bps to 0.25-0.50%. In the updated dot plot, 12 of the FOMC participants expected federal funds rate to reach 1.75-2.00% by then end of 2022, that is, 1.50% above the current level. The end point of current tightening cycle was also raised from 2.1% to 2.8%, and pulled ahead to 2023. Balance sheet runoff could start at a “coming meeting”, that is, May.

                              Suggested readings on Fed

                              Major stock indexes closed sharply higher overnight. S&P 500 is now having 34179.07 near term resistance in radar. Firm break there will argue that the pull back from 36952.65 has completed with three waves down to 32272.64 already. Stronger rally would then be seen be seen back to retest 36952.65 high.

                              The strong support from 23.6% retracement of 18213.65 to 36952.65 at 32530.24, which is a rather bullish sign from long term perspective. Even though break of 36952.65 high is not expected at the first attempt. The range for consolidation could have been set already.

                              Fed Chair Powell press conference live stream

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                                Fed hike 25bps, sees rate at 1.9% by end of 2022, 2.8% by end of 2023

                                  Fed raised federal funds rate target by 25bps to 0.25-0.50% s widely expected. James Bullard dissented, and voted for a 50bps hike. Additionally, Fed expects to start reducing asset holdings “at a coming meeting”.

                                  In the updated dot plot, 12 of the FOMC participants expected federal funds rate to reach 1.75-2.00% by then end of 2022, that is, 1.50% above the current level.

                                  Fed has also significantly lowered 2022 GDP growth forecast, raised 2022 core inflation forecasts and federal funds rate forecasts. The end point of current tightening cycle was also raised from 2.1% to 2.8%, and pulled ahead to 2023.

                                  New median projections – GDP growth

                                  • 2022 real GDP growth was lowered from 4.0% to 2.8%.
                                  • 2023 real GDP growth unchanged at 2.2%.
                                  • 2024 real GDP growth unchanged at 2.0%.
                                  • Longer run GDP growth unchanged at 1.8%.

                                  Unemployment rate:

                                  • 2022 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.5%.
                                  • 2023 unemployment rate unchanged at 3.5%.
                                  • 2024 unemployment rate raised from 3.5% to 3.6%.
                                  • Longer run unemployment rate unchanged at 4.0%.

                                  Core PCE:

                                  • 2022 core PCE inflation raised from 2.7% to 4.1%.
                                  • 2023 core PCE inflation raised from 2.3% to 2.7%.
                                  • 2024 core PCE inflation raised from 2.1% to 2.3%.

                                  Federal funds rate

                                  • 2022 federal funds rate raised from 0.9% to 1.9%.
                                  • 2023 federal funds rate raised from 1.6% to 2.8%.
                                  • 2024 federal funds rate raised from 2.1% to 2.8%.
                                  • Longer run federal funds rate lowered from 2.5% to 2.4%

                                  Full statement here.

                                  Full projections here.

                                  US oil inventories rose 4.3m barrels, WTI pull back slows

                                    US commercial crude oil inventories rose 4.3m barrels in the week ending March 100, versus expectation of -1.8m barrels decline. At 451.9m barrels, oil inventories are about -12% below the five year average for this time of year.

                                    Gasoline inventories dropped -3.6m barrels. Distillate rose 0.3m barrels. Propane/propylene dropped -2.2m barrels. Total commercial petroleum inventories dropped -3.6m barrels.

                                    WTI crude oil in hovering in tight range at around 96 after the release. The pull back from 131.82 high was much deeper than expected. But still, it’s seen as developing into a corrective pattern for now. Selloff is slowing as it’s trying to draw support from 55 day EMA. There is prospect of a rebound from current level. Break of 105.24 minor resistance will indicate that a rebound is underway, back towards 131.82 high.

                                    Canada CPI jumped to 5.7% yoy in Feb, highest since 1991

                                      Canada CPI accelerated sharply form 5.1% yoy to 5.7% yoy in February, above expectation of 5.5% yoy. That’s the largest gain since August 1991, and it’s the second consecutive month where headline inflation exceeded 5% level. Excluding gasoline, CPI rose 4.7% yoy up from January’s 4.3% yoy, fastest since its introduction in 1999. On a monthly basis, CPI rose 1.0% mom in February, largest monthly increase since February 2013.

                                      CPI common rose from 2.3% yoy to 2.6% yoy, above expectation of 2.4% yoy. CPI median rose from 3.3% yoy to 3.5% yoy, matched expectations. CPI trimmed rose from 4.0% yoy to 4.3% yoy, above expectation of 4.2% yoy.

                                      Full release here.

                                      US retail sales rose 0.3% mom in Feb, ex-auto sales rose 0.2% mom, missed expectations

                                        US retail sales rose 0.3% mom to USD 658.1B in February, below expectation of 0.6% mom. Ex-auto sales rose 0.2% mom, below expectation of 0.9% mom. Ex-gasoline sales dropped -0.2% mom. Ex-auto, ex-gasoline sales dropped -0.4% mom.

                                        Total sales for December 2021 through February 2022 period were up 16.0% from the same period a year ago.

                                        Full release here.

                                        ECB Nagel doesn’t expect stagflation at the moment

                                          ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel told German newspaper Handelsblatt, “I don’t expect stagflation at the moment, even though the fallout of the war will boost inflation rates and weaken economic growth.” He added that there are currently “no signs” of a wage-price spiral.

                                          He said ECB’s current approach of tapering asset purchases while being non-committal on rate hike was a “good and balanced” approach. He said, “”I consider it very important that we don’t pre-commit in times of high uncertainty, but stay flexible.”