Silver pressing 24.86 resistance, Gold still trying 1800

    Silver hit as high as 24.81 last week but lost momentum ahead of 24.86 near term resistance. For now, further rise will remain mildly in favor as long as 23.55 minor support intact. Sustained break of 24.86 will argue that whole corrective pattern from 30.07 has completed with three waves down to 21.41. In such case, near term outlook will be turned bullish for 28.73/30.07 resistance zone. However, rejection by 24.86 will retain near term bearishness. Break of 23.55 will bring retest of 21.41 low instead.

    Gold breached 1800 handle last week as the rebound from 1721.46 but quickly lost momentum again. Still, further rise is in favor as long as 1760.01 supports holds, to 1833.79 resistance. Firm break there will resume the rally from 1682.60 to 1916.30 key structural resistance next. however, break of 1760.01 will retain near term bearishness and target 1721.46 support instead.

    Fed Powell: Supply constraints and elevated inflation likely to last longer than expected

      Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Fed is “on track” to start tapering the asset purchases. “Supply constraints and elevated inflation are likely to last longer than previously expected and well into next year, and the same is true for pressure on wages,” he added. “Of we were to see a risk of inflation moving persistently higher, we would certainly use our tools.”

      Separately, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said recent “eye-popping” inflation will subside with the pandemic. The decision on not raising interest rate is appropriate. “Just because we are standing pat, being patient, is not the same as being asleep,” Daly said.

      Canada retail sales rose 2.1% mom in Aug, to fall -1.9% mom in Sep

        Canada retail sales rose 2.1% mom to CAD 57.2B in August, slightly above expectation of 2.0% mom. The gain was led by higher sales at food and beverage stores (+4.8%), gasoline stations (+3.8%), and clothing and clothing accessories stores (+3.9%). Sales increased in 9 of 11 subsectors. Based on preliminary data, sales has decreased -1.9% mom in September.

        Full release here.

        UK PMI composite rose to 56.8, picking up economy pouring fuel on inflation worries

          UK PMI Manufacturing ticked up to 57.7 in October, from September’s 57.1, above expectation of 55.6. PMI Services rose to 58.0, up from 55.4, above expectation of 54.5. PMI Composite rose to 56.8, up from 54.9, highest in 3 months.

          Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said: “The UK economy picked up speed again in October, but the expansion is looking increasingly dependent on the service sector, which in turn looks prone to a slowdown amid the recent rise in COVID-19 cases. Growth is also being accompanied by an unprecedented rise in inflationary pressures, which will inevitably feed through into higher consumer prices in coming months.

          “The news comes at a time when the Bank of England is already leaning towards hiking interest rates to safeguard against inflationary expectations becoming entrenched. The record readings of the PMI survey’s price gauges will inevitably pour further fuel on these inflation worries and add to the case for higher interest rates.

          Full release here.

          Eurozone PMI composite dropped to 54.7, growth much weaker in Q4

            Eurozone PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly to 58.5 in October, down from September’s 58.6, above expectation of 57.3. But that’s still the lowest level in 8 months. PMI Services dropped to 54.7, down from 56.4, below expectation of 55.4, and a 6-month low. PMI Composite dropped to 54.3, down from 56.2, a 6-month low.

            Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “A sharp slowdown in October means the eurozone starts the fourth quarter with the weakest growth momentum since April… The ongoing pandemic means supply chain delays remain a major concern, constraining production and driving prices ever higher, both in manufacturing and in the services sector. Average selling prices for goods and services are rising at a rate unprecedented in over two decades, which will inevitably feed through to higher consumer prices in the coming months.

            “While the overall rate of economic growth remains above the long-run average for now, risks seem tilted to the downside for the near-term as the pandemic continues to disrupt economies and push prices higher. After strong second and third quarter expansions, GDP growth is looking much weaker by comparison in the fourth quarter.”

            Full release here.

            Germany PMI composite dropped to 52.0, beginning to plateau

              Germany PMI Manufacturing dropped slightly to 58.2, down from 58.4, better than expectation of 56.8. That’s still a 9-month low. PMI Services dropped notably to 52.4, down from 56.2, below expectation of 55.2, a 6-month low. PMI Composite dropped to 52.0, down from 55.5, an 8-month low.

              Phil Smith, Associate Director at IHS Markit said: “October’s flash PMI data point to economic activity in Germany beginning to plateau at the start of the fourth quarter. Growth has slowed to a modest pace, with supply bottlenecks holding back manufacturing production and the rebound in services activity continuing to lose momentum, in part due to supply issues spilling over to the sector.”

              Full release here.

              France PMI composite dropped to 54.7, growth profile akin to a K

                France PMI Manufacturing dropped to 53.3 in October, down from September’s 55.0, below expectation of 54.3. That’s also a 9-month low. PMI Services rose to 56.6, up from 56.2, above expectation of 55.3. PMI Composite dropped slightly to 54.7, down from 55.3, a 6-month low.

                Joe Hayes, Senior Economist at IHS Markit said: “Responsibility for France’s economic recovery was placed firmly on the shoulders of the service sector in October, as latest PMI data showed manufacturing output falling for the first time since January. The overall rate of expansion slowed to a six-month low as the supply-side issues hurting manufacturers the most offset a faster expansion in services activity. Of the medley of letters that an economic recovery can look like, France’s growth profile is currently akin to a “K”.

                Full release here.

                UK retail sales dropped -0.2% mom, -1.3% yoy in Sep

                  UK retail sales dropped -0.2% mom, -1.3% yoy in September, below expectation of 0.7% mom, -0.4% yoy. Ex-fuel sales dropped -0.6% mom, -2.6% yoy, below expectation of 0.2% mom, -1.7% yoy.

                  ONS also noted: “Despite relaxation of COVID-19 restrictions in summer 2021, in-store retail sales remain subdued; the proportion of retail sales online rose to 28.1% in September 2021 from 27.9% in August, substantially higher than the 19.7% in February 2020 before the pandemic.”

                  Full release here.

                  Japan PMI manufacturing rose to 53.0, returned to growth

                    Japan PMI Manufacturing rose to 53.0 in October, up from September’s 51.5, above expectation of 51.6. PMI Services rose to 50.7, up from 47.8. PMI Composite rose to 50.7, up from 47.9.

                    Usamah Bhatti, Economist at IHS Markit, said: “Activity at Japanese private sector businesses returned to expansion territory at the start of the fourth quarter of 2021… Panel members commonly associated the slight recovery to a reduction in COVID-19 cases and looser pandemic restrictions.

                    “Private sector businesses also noted an increase in aggregate new business for the first time since April, assisted by a quicker rise in export orders. That said, firms continued to highlight sustained supply chain pressures and material shortages. As a result, input prices rose at the fastest rate in over 13 years. This contributed to the sharpest rise in output charges since July 2018.”

                    Full release here.

                    Australia PMI composite rose sharply to 52.2, back in expansion

                      Australia PMI Manufacturing rose to 57.3 in October, up from September’s 56.8. PMI Services jumped sharply to 52.0, up from 45.5. PMI Composite rose to 52.2, up from 46.0. All are four-month highs.

                      Jingyi Pan, Economics Associate Director at IHS Markit, said: “Composite PMI indicated that the Australian economy is back in expansion in October as the easing of COVID-19 restrictions and plans for further opening up of the Australian economy restored confidence and rejuvenated economic activity…

                      “Higher demand however translated to greater strains on the supply chain… Meanwhile employment levels rose at a slower rate with reports of constraints when trying to hire staff. These are issues that may persist in the short- to medium- term for firms as they take their time to clear.”

                      Full release here.

                      RBA Lowe: Inflation not to sustain unless feeding through to wages

                        RBA Governor Philip Lowe at Universidad de Chile’s Conference that he didn’t expect the current rise in inflation to sustain, unless it led to higher wages growth.

                        “Is it going to reset expectations about what type of wage growth people should get, or will the spike dissipate and we will go back to the type of labour market outcomes we’ve seen before the pandemic?” Lowe said. “So there is quite a lot of uncertainty around that issue, but we are watching very carefully.”

                        BoE Pill: Nov MPC meeting is finely balanced, live

                          BoE’s new Chief Economist Huw Pill said UK inflation is likely to rise “close to or even slightly above 5 per cent” early next year. And, “that’s a very uncomfortable place for a central bank with an inflation target of 2 per cent to be.”

                          As for market expectation of a November rate hike, Pill declined to disclose his stance, and just said it’s “finely balanced”, “November is live”. And he added, “maybe there’s a bit too much excitement in the focus on rates right now”.

                          “The big picture is, I think, there are reasons that we don’t need the emergency settings of policy that we saw after the intensification of the pandemic,” said Pill. “The settings that we now have are supportive settings. The need for support has diminished, as this bridge has been built and largely traversed.”

                          Fed Bostic penciled in a rate hike in Q3, maybe early Q4 of 2022

                            Atlanta Fed Raphael Bostic told CNBC he has “penciled in” a rate increase in “late third, maybe early fourth” quarter of 2022. “Our experience from the pandemic has really frankly surprised to the upside,” he added “I’ve really adjusted my expectations moving forward.”

                            Bostic expected the supply chain disruptions to “last longer than we expected”. He said, “the labor markets are not going to get to equilibrium as quick as we hoped, but demand was also going to stay high and that combination was going to mean we’re going to have inflationary pressures.” It’s becoming “clearer and clearer” inflation pressure “is going to last into 2022.”

                            US Philly Fed manufacturing dropped to 23.8, price indicators remained elevated

                              In the October Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, the diffusion index for current general activity dropped to 23.8, down from 30.7, below expectation of 26.0.

                              Looking at some details, current shipments index was essentially unchanged at 30.0. New orders rose 15 pts to 30.8. Employment index rose from 26.3 to 30.7. The index for prices paid rose 3 pts to 70.3. Current prices received index dropped -2 to 51.1. Price indicators remained elevated.

                              Full release here.

                              US initial jobless claims dropped to 290k, continued to trend down

                                US initial jobless claims dropped -6k to 290k in the week ending October 16, better than expectation of 298k. It’s also the lowest level since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -15k to 320k, lowest since March 14, 2020 too.

                                Continuing claims dropped -122k to 2481k in the week ending October 9, lowest since march 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -85k to 2656k, lowest since March 21, 2020.

                                Full release here.

                                Australia NAB business confidence dropped to -1 in Q3

                                  Australia NAB business confidence dropped from Q2’s 18 to -1 in Q3. Current business conditions dropped from 30 to 13. Conditions for the next 3 months dropped from 35 to 8. Conditions for the next 12 months also dropped from 33 to 19. Capex plans for the next 12 months dropped from 37 to 26. Trading conditions dropped from 36 to 16. Profitability dropped from 30 to 11. Employment dropped from 23 to 11.

                                  Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist, “With lockdowns in place for most of Q3, it’s unsurprising to see both business conditions and confidence take a fairly large hit for the quarter… While conditions deteriorated sharply, they didn’t fall to the depths seen during the first lockdowns in 2020.”

                                  “While these survey results confirm the large hit to activity that took place in Q3, we are optimistic for a strong rebound in activity in Q4 and into 2022 and reopening progresses.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  Fed Mester: Rate hikes are not coming any time soon

                                    Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told CNBC “the thought about raising interest rates is not a near-term consideration at all.” Instead, “we’re going to think about the decision coming up, which is about the asset purchases, and then as those wind down we’ll have time to assess where the economy is.”

                                    “I don’t think that interest rate hikes are coming any time soon because I don’t think we’ll reach our goals which are maximum employment and inflation at and above 2% for some time,” Mester said.

                                    “So far the medium-run inflation expectations and longer-run inflation expectations are still at levels consistent with our 2% inflation goal,” she said. “We don’t want to get into a situation where they continue to move up because that would be a signal that we may have to do an adjustment.”

                                    Fed Quarles quite wary of further increases in inflation expectations

                                      Fed Governor Randal Quarles said in a speech, “we have met the test of substantial further progress toward both our employment and our inflation mandates”. He would “support a decision at our November meeting to start reducing these purchases and complete that process by the middle of next year”.

                                      He said Fed is not behind the curve on inflation, for three reasons: “Most of the biggest drivers of the very high current inflation rates will ease in coming quarters, some measures of underlying inflation pressures are less worrisome, and longer-term inflation expectations are anchored, at least for now”.

                                      But, “forecast for growth and uncertainty about the resolution of supply constraints mean that there are upside risks to inflation next year.. Hence, his focus is “beginning to turn more fully from the rapidly improving labor market to whether inflation begins its descent toward levels that are more consistent with our price-stability mandate.”

                                      “I would also be quite wary of further increases in inflation expectations in this environment,” Quarles said, “if inflation does remain more than moderately above 2 percent, be assured that the FOMC has the framework and the tools to address it.

                                      Full speech here.

                                      Canada CPI rose to 4.4% yoy in Sep, highest since 2003

                                        Canada CPI accelerated to 4.4% yoy in September, up from August’s 4.1% yoy, above expectation of 4.3% yoy. That’s the fastest pace since 2003. Excluding gasoline CPI rose 0.3% yoy.

                                        CPI common was unchanged at 1.8% yoy, below expectation of 1.9% yoy. CPI median rose to 2.8% yoy, up from 2.6% yoy, above expectation of 2.6% yoy. CPI trimmed rose to 3.4% yoy, up from 3.3% yoy, above expectation of 3.3% yoy.

                                        Full release here.

                                        Bundesbank Weidmann: It’s crucial not to lose sign of prospective inflationary dangers

                                          Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann warned, “it will be crucial not to look one-sidedly at deflationary risks, but not to lose sight of prospective inflationary dangers either.” The comment came as Weidmann announced he’s stepping down from the post on December 31, as “more than 10 years is a good measure of time to turn over a new leaf – for the Bundesbank, but also for me personally.”

                                          ECB President Christine Lagarde said in statement, “I respect Jens Weidmann`s decision to step down from his position as President of Deutsche Bundesbank at the end of this year after more than 10 years of service, but I also immensely regret it.”