New Zealand ANZ business confidence dropped to -14.2 on Delta lockdown

    New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence dropped sharply from -3.8 to -14.2 in August. Own Activity Outlook dropped from 26.3 to 19.2. Looking at some more details, export intentions ticked down from 7.6 to 7.4. Investment intentions dropped from 17.4 to 14.4. Employment intentions dropped from 21.4 to 17.0. Profit expectations dropped from 0.0 to -5.5. Inflation expectations, however, rose further from 2.70 to 3.05, above RBNZ’s target band. ANZ said that the “initial responses after level 4 lockdown look encouragingly robust”.

    ANZ also noted while Delta is a “formidable opponent”, there are some reasons to the “glass-half-full about the situation”. The economy had “significant momentum” going into the lockdown. People will be a lot more confidence than last time regarding their job. Also evidence there and overseas suggests that the bounce out of lockdowns tends to be vigorous. But it’s still too soon to be sure when the level 4 restrictions will stamp out Delta.

    Full release here.

    Eurozone economic sentiment dropped to 117.5, employment expectation rose to 112.8

      Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indictor dropped from record high of 119.0 to 117.5 in August, below expectation of 118.6. Employment Expectations Indictor rose 1.2 pts to 112.8, hitting the highest level since November 2018. Looking at some more details, industry confidence dropped from 14.5 to 13.7. Services confidence dropped from 18.9 to 16.8. Consumer confidence dropped from -4.4 to -5.3. Retail trade confidence rose from 4.4 to 4.6. Construction confidence rose from 4.0 to 5.5.

      EU ESI dropped -1.5 pts from record high 118.0 to 116.5. Amongst the largest EU economies, the ESI fell sharply in France (-4.5) and in the Netherlands (-3.0), and to a lesser extent, in Italy (-1.9), Poland (-1.7) and Spain (-1.2). Sentiment in Germany (-0.3) was virtually unchanged. Employment Expectation Indicator rose 1.0 pts to 112.6, highest since November 2018.

      Full release here.

      Swiss KOF dropped to 113.5, 4th wave of pandemic fueling doubts on economy

        Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped for the third month in a row to 113.5 in August, below expectation of 126.3. However, it’;s still well above it’s average value of 100. KOF said, “the fourth wave of the pandemic, which is now becoming increasingly clear, is apparently fueling doubts about largely unhindered economic activity in the near future.”

        Full release here.

        ECB Villeroy: No urgency to decide on asset purchases at Sep meeting

          ECB Governing Council member, Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau told BFM Business radio that the economies in France and the euro zone should be back to pre-COVID levels in early 2022 or maybe earlier.

          He added there is no risk of higher inflation at this stage, and there is no risk of a sustainable surge in inflation in the Eurozone. He expected PEPP purchases to be there until at least March 2022. There is no urgency to decide on asset purchases at the September meeting.

          AUD/NZD staying in down trend as AU and NZ lockdowns extend

            Australia’s coronavirus deaths surpassed 1000 over the weekend, as New South Wales reported four deaths, with a new daily record of 1290 infections. As lockdown continues, Premier Gladys Berejiklian emphasized in the updated that “when we get to 70 per cent double dose, the freedoms we are expecting will be [for] those of [us who] are fully vaccinated.” Victoria also announced on Sunday that lockdown, the sixth one, would be extended.

            Separately, New Zealand announced to extend level 4 restrictions in Auckland today, for at least another two weeks. Nevertheless, alert level for other parts of the country is lowered. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said it’s too soon to say whether the outbreak had peaked. But Director-general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield noted the encouraging sign that the “R number” was already one.

            AUD/NZD is still in a near term down trend even though downside momentum is diminishing, as seen in daily MACD. As long as 1.0538 resistance holds, current fall from 1.0944, as the third leg of the pattern from 1.1042, could still extend to 100% projection of 1.1042 to 1.0415 from 1.0944 at 1.0317.

            Powell: Fed will carefully assessing incoming data and the evolving risks

              In the highly anticipated Jackson Hole speech, Fed chair Jerome Powell said “substantial further progress test has been “met for inflation”. And there has also been “clear progress toward maximum employment”.

              At July’s FOMC meeting, he view was that if the economy “evolved broadly as anticipated”, it could be “appropriate to start” tapering this year. However, “the intervening month has brought more progress in the form of a strong employment report for July, but also the further spread of the Delta variant.”

              He added that Fed will be “carefully assessing incoming data and the evolving risks”, without giving any hint of the timing and pace of tapering

              Full speech here.

              Fed Chair Powell speech live stream

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                Full speech here.

                Fed Mester comfortable with tapering some time this year

                  Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she’s “comfortable with tapering some time this year”. She wanted it “completed by the middle of next year”. She added that there is “no need” for the kind of accommodation as “at the height of the crisis”.

                  Mester said she is watching “if one-off price increases become embedded in inflation expectations.” She is “very watchful” on the inflation side and she now thinks “it will be more prolonged”.

                  Fed Harker still supportive of moving the taper along

                    Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said he’s “still supportive of moving the taper along”, because he didn’t think asset purchase is “doing a whole lot right now”. He added that Fed should finish tapering before considering raising interest rates.

                    He said the Fed has achieved “substantial further progress on inflation” already. There is “some evidence that inflationary pressure “may not be so transitory”. Meanwhile, the job market is changing the people’s thinking about what a job is has changed too.

                    US PCE inflation accelerated to 4.2% yoy in Jul, core PCE unchanged at 3.6% yoy

                      US personal income rose 1.1% or USD 225.9B in July, well above expectation of 0.2%. Spending rose 0.3% or USD 42.2B, slightly below expectation of 0.4%.

                      Headline PCE accelerated to 4.2% yoy, up from 4.0% yoy, above expectation of 3.5% yoy. Core PCE was unchanged at 3.6% yoy, matched expectations. Energy increased 23.6% yoy while food prices rose 2.4% yoy.

                      Full release here.

                      Fed Bostic comfortable with Oct timeline for tapering

                        Boston Fed President Raphael Bostic he’s “comfortable with an October timeline” for starting tapering if August job growth could match the near 1m number as with the previous two months. Also, once the tapering starts, he was “definitely looking to get this done as quickly as possible”, and put a full end to the asset purchases “toward the end of Q1” of 2022.

                        He also said that the spread of the Delta variant had not changed his economic outlook in any fundamental way. “What I have seen is some suggestion that things are slowing down, but they are still just slowing from extremely high levels. I have not seen big changes in the underlying dynamic,” Bostic added.

                        Australia retail sales dropped -2.7% mom in Jul, NSW down -8.9% on lockdown

                          Australia retail sales dropped -2.7% mom in July, slightly better than expectation of -2.9% mom. Comparing to a year ago, sales also dropped 3.1% yoy.

                          Ben James, Director of Quarterly Economy Wide Surveys, said: “Lockdowns and stay-at-home orders in many parts of Australia continued to impact retail trade in July, with many non-essential retail businesses closing their physical stores. In particular, the first full month of lockdown in New South Wales, following the Delta outbreak in June, saw retail turnover in the state fall 8.9 per cent. This was the largest fall of any state and territory since August 2020.”

                          Full release here.

                          NASDAQ closed lower after comments from Fed hawks

                            US stocks closed lower overnight as traders turned cautious, watching the development in Afghanistan and upcoming speech of Fed chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium. A few Fed officials expressed their support for tapering asset purchases, somewhat talking down the impact of the spread of Delta. Yet, we’d note that those are known hawks already. Doves might come out today telling another story while Powell would likely sound non-committal. The overall Jackson Hole event would likely leave the market with nothing new on the net.

                            NASDAQ apparently faced some resistance from 61.8% projection of 10822.57 to 14175.11 from 13002.53 at 15074.39, and 15k psychological level. While it’s now in a retreat, there is no sign of reversal, at least before covering the gap made at weekly open. Nevertheless, it might still take some time to build the base to power through 15k at a later stage.

                            Fed Kaplan: It’s a lot healthier to wean economy off asset purchases

                              Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan told CNBC that by and large, businesses are “weathering Delta at least as well as previous surges”. Businesses and consumers are learning to adapt well. There is no demand problem in the economy too.

                              He added that it would be “a lot healthier if Fed begins to wean economy off asset purchases”. Kaplan said he “would prefer to start taper soon but do it over plus or minus eight months, although I remain open-minded.” September meeting would remain his preference to announce tapering.

                              Fed Bullard: We don’t need the asset purchases at this point

                                St. Louis Federal Reserve president James Bullard repeated his call for tapering to end asset purchase by the early next year, as “we don’t need the asset purchases at this point.”

                                “I think a lot depends on whether inflation going to moderate in 2022 or not. I’m a little skeptical that it is. I think we’re going to get at least 2.5% inflation in 2022, maybe higher than that and there’s some risk to the upside on that,” Bullard said.

                                “We will be able to get to a good consensus on the committee and get to a good wind-down process. It does seem that we are coalescing around a plan,” Bullard said

                                US GDP grew 6.6% annualized in Q2, revised slightly up

                                  According to the second estimate, US GDP grew an annual rate of 6.6% in Q2, revised up from 6.5%. The update reflects upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and exports that were partly offset by downward revisions to private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down.

                                  Full release here.

                                  US initial jobless claims rose to 353k, slightly below expectation

                                    US initial jobless claims rose 4k to 353k in the week ending August 21, slightly below expectation of 355k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -11.5k to 366.5k, lowest since March 14.

                                    Continuing claims dropped -3k to 2862k in the week ending August 14, lowest since March 14, 2020. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -108.5k to 2901.5k, lowest since March 21, 2020.

                                    Full release here.

                                    Fed George maintained it’s a point to begin to ease up accommodation

                                      Kansas City Fed President Esther George told Bloomberg that the spike in Covid is a “risk to the outlook”, but her contacts in the region said the economy “continues to grow at a strong rate”, consumers are “still spending” and labor markets is “continuing to heal”. The outlook “remains a positive one”. The virus is not expected to derail the economy”.

                                      George also maintained that the progress the economy has made suggests “we’ve come to a point where we can begin to ease up on the amount of accommodation”. It’s “time to begin to make those adjustments” on asset purchases.

                                      As policymakers are coming into the September meeting, she said, we will continue to talk about how the economy has unfolded and the timing for adjustments to those asset purchases”.

                                      ECB accounts: Large majority of members see new forward guidance a fine balance

                                        In the accounts of July 21-22 meeting, ECB said a “large majority” of the council members supported the forward guidance proposal, which was “widely seen as providing a fine balance between greater emphasis on outcome-based elements in the forward guidance and a more flexible, forward-looking perspective.”

                                        However, “a few members upheld their reservations, as the amended formulation did not sufficiently address their concerns.”. This related in particular to the “implied likelihood and persistence of overshooting, and being seen as promising to keep interest rates at their present or lower levels for a very long time period without an explicit escape clause.”

                                        ECB also said, the new forward guidance “underscored the Governing Council’s commitment to achieving its new inflation target”. It indicated that ECB would “wait until it was confident about the path of inflation before raising the key policy rates.” Nevertheless, the guidance is “not a rule” but “an indication to financial markets and the broader public” for aligning their inflation expectations.

                                        Full accounts here.

                                        Germany Gfk consumer sentiment dropped to -1.2, fear of tightened restrictions again

                                          Germany Gfk consumer sentiment for September dropped from -0.4 to -1.2. In August, economic expectations dropped from 54.6 to 40.8. Income expectations rose from 29.0 to 30.5. Propensity to buy dropped from 14.8 to 10.3.

                                          Rolf Bürkl, a GfK consumer expert, commented on this observation: “Significant higher incidence values, a slowdown in vaccination momentum, and discussions about how to deal with unvaccinated individuals in the future have caused noticeable uncertainty among consumers in Germany. They fear that restrictions could even be tightened again. This is obviously depressing consumer sentiment right now.”

                                          Full release here.