In an interview by Le Monde, ECB chief economist Philip Lane said that “from now on, the economy will be growing quickly, but from a subdued level”. Eurozone will only get back to its 2019 GDP level “around this time next year”. Unemployment rate will only fall back to 2019 levels “in 2023”. Hence, “it’s a long journey”, which still requires “sustained” fiscal and monetary efforts.
Lane also said that despite the increases in some Eurozone bond yields, they “remain relatively low and anchored”. He reiterated ECB’s commitment to “maintain favorable financing conditions”. The “significantly” higher level of asset purchases announced in March will continue over the coming weeks. The pace of purchases will be reviewed at the June meeting. He added, “we can increase or decrease our purchases depending on what is necessary to keep financing conditions favorable.”
Bitcoin extending rebound, but near term upside potential limited
Bitcoin retreated to 52960 last week but set a base there. Rebound from 47112 resumes today and is now heading back to 60k handle or above. Still, we’d continue to view current rise as the second leg of the medium term corrective pattern from 64848 high only. Hence, bitcoin should start to feel heavy as it approaches this resistance, which shouldn’t be taken out decisively.
We’d expecting another falling leg and break of 52960 will target 47112 support and below. The corrective pattern might complete only after testing 38.2% retracement of 4000 to 64828 at 41591, which is close to the top of prior range of 20283/41964.