In a speech, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said “prospects are good for a much more favorable 2021” with vaccines distribution underway and further fiscal relief. Though, “the next few months will be challenging ones” with increasing new cases of coronavirus, which are “putting strains on our healthcare system and limiting economic activity. ”
She added that “so far the recovery has generally been stronger than anticipated”. This suggests that “we may have been underestimating the economy’s resilience and underlying momentum, as well as the ability of households and businesses to adapt to this unprecedented environment.” Recovery is expected to continue, but uneven over the year.
The post-vaccination phase of recovery is expected to “continue over the next few years, with growth above trend, declines in the unemployment rate, and gradually rising inflation”.
Overall, “monetary policy will need to remain highly accommodative for quite some time because achieving our monetary policy goals is likely to be a journey and not a sprint… The FOMC is, and will remain, fully committed to using our policy tools to achieve our goals, in support of a broad-based and sustainable recovery.”
Full speech here.
Eurozone PMI composite finalized at 49.1, worse may be yet to come
Eurozone PMI Services was finalized at 46.4 in December, up from November’s 41.7. PMI Composite was finalized at 49.1, up from November’s 45.3. Looking at some member states, Ireland PMI Composite rose to 53.4, a 4-month high. Germany rose to 52.0, 2-month high. France rose to 49.5, 4-month high. Spain rose to 48.7, 5-month high. Italy rose to 43.0, 2-month high.
Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit said: “The eurozone economy contracted for a second successive month in December, deteriorating at a slightly faster rate than previously thought at the end of the year due to intensifying COVID-19 restrictions… Worse may be yet to come before things get better, especially as the latest survey data were collected before the news of the new – more contagious – strain of the virus…. The risk of a technical recession, with GDP also falling in the first quarter has therefore risen.
Full release here.