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US personal income rose 0.9% in Sep, spending rose 1.4%, both well above expectations

    By
    ActionForex
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    US personal income rose 0.9% mom in September, or USD 170.3B, well above expectation of 0.5% mom. Spending rose 1.4% mom, or USD 201.4B, also well above expectation of 1.0% mom. Headline PCE price index accelerated to 1.4% yoy, up from 1.3% yoy, above expectation of 1.3% yoy. Core PCE price index also edged up to 1.5% yoy, up from 1.4% yoy, above expectation of 1.4% yoy.

    Full release here.

    Eurozone GDP grew 12.7% qoq in Q3, well above expectations

      By
      ActionForex
      -

      Eurozone GDP grew 12.7% qoq in Q3, well above expectation of 9.0% yoy. That’s also more than enough to cover the -11.8% qoq contraction in Q2. Besides, it’s the sharpest increase on record since 1995.

      EU GDP grew 12.1% qoq. Among the Member States, for which data are available for the third quarter 2020, France (+18.2%) recorded the highest increase compared to the previous quarter, followed by Spain (+16.7%) and Italy (+16.1%). Lithuania (+3.7%), Cheeky (+6.2%) and Latvia (+6.6%) recorded the lowest increases. While a rebound was observed for all publishing countries compared to the second quarter, the year on year growth rates were still negative.

      Full release here.

      Eurozone CPI was unchanged at -0.3% yoy in October, matched expectations CPI core was also unchanged at 0.2% yoy. Unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 8.3% in September, matched expectations.

      Germany GDP grew 8.2% qoq in Q3, still -4.2% below pre-pandemic level

        By
        ActionForex
        -

        Germany GDP grew 8.2% qoq in Q3, above expectation of 7.3% qoq. But that’s not enough to recovery the -9.7% qoq contraction in Q2. Also, when compared with Q4 of 2019, before the pandemic, GDP was still -4.2% lower.

        Destatis said “growth was based on higher final consumption expenditure of households, higher capital formation in machinery and equipment and a sharp increase in exports.”

        Full release here.

        Released too, retail sales dropped -2.2% mom in September, below expectation of -0.5% mom.

        Swiss KOF dropped to 106.6, subdued outlook in view of pandemic and restrictions

          By
          ActionForex
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          Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped to 106.6 in October, down from 110.1, missed expectation of 107.0. KOF said, “the economic outlook for Switzerland is subdued in view of the pandemic situation and the restrictions that are likely to result from it.”

          “The lower level of the KOF Economic Barometer in October is in particular due to negative developments of the indicator bundles of the economic sector other services, the accommodation and food service activities and foreign demand. In addition, indicators relating to the manufacturing sector also recorded a decline. By contrast, private consumption and the construction sector remained virtually stable relative to the previous month.” KOF added.

          Full release here.

          Also from Swiss, retail sales rose just 0.3% yoy in September, worse than expectation of 2.8% yoy.

          France GDP grew 18.2% qoq in Q3, all domestic demand rebounded sharply

            By
            ActionForex
            -

            France GDP grew 18.2% qoq in Q3, better than expectation of 15.0% qoq. That’s more than enough to recover the -13.7% qoq contraction in Q2. Yet, GDP remained well below the level it had before the pandemic. Comparing to Q3 2019, GDP was -4.3% yoy lower.

            All components of domestic demand rebounded sharply, with household consumption up 17.3% qoq. General government consumption expenditure rose 15.4% qoq. GFCF rose 23.3% qoq. Exports rose 23.2% qoq. Imports rose 16.0% qoq.

            Full release here.

            Also from France, CPI came in at -0.1% mom, 0.0% yoy, versus expectation of -0.2% mom, 0.1% yoy.

            Australia private credit rose 0.1%mom in Sep, PPI rose 0.4% qoq in Q3

              By
              ActionForex
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              Australia total private sector credit rose 0.1% mom in September, below expectation of 0.2% mom. Housing credit rose 0.4% mom. Personal credit dropped -0.8% mom. Business credit dropped 0.3% mom. Broad money rose 0.9% mom.

              Also released, PPI rose 0.4% qoq in Q3 matched expectations. Over the year, PPI dropped -0.4% yoy.

              Japan industrial production rose 4% mom in Sep, more growth expected ahead

                By
                ActionForex
                -

                Japan industrial production rose 4.0% mom in September, above expectation of 3.2% mom. That’s the fourth straight month of growth in output. Also, according to survey by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, production is expected to rise further by 4.5% in October and 1.2% in November.

                Unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.0% in September, better than expectation of 3.1%. Jobs-to-applicants ratio dropped to 1.03, hitting the lowest level since December 2013. Housing starts dropped -9.9% yoy in September, worse than expectation of -8.7% yoy.

                However, Tokyo CPI core dipped further into negative territory, down -0.5% yoy, versus September’s 0.0% yoy, missed expectation of -0.3% yoy.

                ECB President Christine Lagarde press conference live stream

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                  ActionForex
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                  ECB to recalibrate instructions based on December macroeconomic projections

                    By
                    ActionForex
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                    ECB acknowledged in the monetary policy decision statement that risks are “clearly tilted to the downside” in the current environment. New round of macroeconomic projections tin December will “allow a thorough reassessment of the economic outlook and the balance of risks”. ECB will then “recalibrate its instruments” as appropriate.

                    For today, main refinancing rate is held at 0.00%, marginal lending facility rate and deposit rate at 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. Forward guidance is unchanged interest rates will “remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon”.

                    ECB will also continue the PEPP purchases with a total envelope of EUR 1350B “until at least the end of June 2021”. Net purchases under APP will continue at monthly pace of EUR 20B, together with the additional EUR 120B temporary envelop until the end of the year.

                    Full statement here.

                    US GDP grew 33.1% annualized in Q3, beat expectations

                      By
                      ActionForex
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                      US GDP grew at annual rate of 33.1% in Q3, above expectation of 32.0%. The increase in real GDP reflected increases in personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in federal government spending and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased

                      Full release here.

                      US initial jobless claims dropped to 751k, continuing claims dropped to 7.8m

                        By
                        ActionForex
                        -

                        US initial jobless claims dropped -40k to 751k in the week ending October 24, slightly better than expectation of 763k. Four-week moving average of initial claims dropped -24.5k to 787.8k.

                        Continuing claims dropped -709k to 7756k in the week ending October 17. Four-week moving average of continuing claims dropped -1058k to 9053k.

                        Full release here.

                        Eurozone economic sentiment unchanged at 90.9, but employment expectation turned negative

                          By
                          ActionForex
                          -

                          Eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator was unchanged at 90.9 in October, slightly above expectation of 89.6. Industrial Confidence rose for the sixth consecutive month, from -11.4 to -9.6. Services Confidence halted the recovery and dropped from -11.2 to -11.8. Consumer Confidence slipped -1.6 pts to -15.5. Retail Trade Confidence continued its recovery and rose 1.7 pts to -6.9. However, Employment Expectations Indicator turned negative, down by -1.8 pts to 89.8.

                          Full release here.

                          ECB to stand pat but pave way for Dec easing, a look at EUR/CAD

                            By
                            ActionForex
                            -

                            ECB monetary policy decision is a major focus for today. Coronavirus situation is “very serious” as described by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Eurozone economy is destined to contract further in Q4 with tens of millions of people back in lockdowns. Heading reading is negative and would remain so for the near term. Yet, ECB is still unlikely to act “out of character” and deliver more monetary easing today. December remains the timing to do so as expected by most analysts. President Christine Lagarde, though, should clearly indicate that ECB is ready to use the PEPP as the main tool again in December, with extension and expansion.

                            Suggested readings on ECB:

                            Euro and Canadian Dollar are two of the weakest ones for the week. Euro is having a slight upper hand thanks the drag from oil prices. Technically, we’re still favoring the case that corrective pattern from 1.5978 has completed with three waves down to 1.5389. Break of 1.5738 resistance would bring retest of 1.5978/91 key resistance zone. Such development would help cushion part of Euro’s decline elsewhere. However, break of 1.5522 minor support would extend the correction with another falling leg, probably even through 1.5389. If happens, that would be an indication of a full across the board selloff in the common currency. We’ll see how it reacts after ECB.

                            BoJ stands pat, revised down fiscal 2020 growth and inflation forecasts

                              By
                              ActionForex
                              -

                              BoJ left monetary policy unchanged at widely expected. Under the yield curve control framework, short term policy interest rate is kept at -0.1%. BoJ will also continue to by JGBs, without upper limit” to keep 10-year yields at around 0%. Goushi Kataoka dissented in the 8-1 vote again, pushing for further strengthening of easing.

                              In the Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices report, BoJ said the economy is “likely to follow an improving trend with economic activity resuming and the impact of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) waning gradually”. But, “the pace is expected to be only moderate while vigilance against COVID-19 continues.”

                              Year-on-year core CPI rate is “likely to be negative for the time being” mainly affected by COVID-19, the past decline in crude oil prices, and the “Go To Travel” campaign. Growth projections for fiscal 2020 was revised lower “mainly due to a delay in recovery in services demand”. But overall outlook is “extremely unclear”, with risks to both activity and prices “skewed to the downside”.

                              Median GDP forecasts:

                              • Fiscal 2020 revised down to -5.5% (from -4.7%)
                              • Fiscal 2021 revised up to 3.6% (from 3.3%).
                              • Fiscal 2020 revised up to 1.6% (from 1.5%).

                              Media core CPI forecasts:

                              • Fiscal 2020 revised down to -0.7% (from -0.6%).
                              • Fiscal 2021 revised up to (0.4% (from 0.3%).
                              • Fiscal 2022 unchanged at 0.7%.

                              Australia NAB business confidence rose to -10, conditions rose to -4

                                By
                                ActionForex
                                -

                                Australia NAB Business Confidence rose to -10 in Q3, up from Q2’s -15. Business Conditions improved markedly. Current situation rose from -26 to -4. Conditions for next 3 months rose from -22. to -3. Conditions for next 12 months turned positive from -8 to 13.

                                Looking at some more details, Employment rose from -29 to -14. Employment for next three months rose from -14. to -2. Employment for next 12 months turned positive, from -12. to 5. Trading turned positive from -25 to 2. Profitability rose from -25. to -1.

                                Alan Oster, NAB Group Chief Economist: “The Q3 survey conducted from mid-August to mid-September shows that conditions had improved notably from Q2 reflecting the opening up of the economy and generally better expectations about the virus. That said, despite the strong gains, both conditions and confidence remain very weak”.

                                “As the economy opens up and the recovery unfolds business confidence will be an important factor in determining how quickly things can get back to normal. While uncertainty will likely remain elevated at the global level, opening up state borders and at least reaching a COVID-normal domestically will be important for further gains in confidence” said Oster.

                                Full release here.

                                New Zealand ANZ business confidence rose to -15.7, mix of ups and downs

                                  By
                                  ActionForex
                                  -

                                  New Zealand ANZ Business Confidence rose to -15.7 in October, up from September’s -28.5. That’s slightly below October’s preliminary reading of -14.5. Confidence was best in construction at 12.5 and worst in agriculture at -50.0. Own Activity outlook turned positive to 4.7, up from -5.4. Activity was positive in all (including retail, manufacturing, construction and services), except agriculture at -4.0.

                                  ANZ said: “There was a mix of ups and downs – it’s no longer true to say that business activity and sentiment indicators are bouncing strongly across the board. We do expect businesses to face some tougher times as the cushioning impact of the wage subsidy fades, but our best guess is that it’ll take at least a month or two to be felt. For now, the levels are encouragingly robust, on the whole.”

                                  Full release here.

                                  DOW targeting 26537 support after gap down

                                    By
                                    ActionForex
                                    -

                                    DOW gapped lower today and hit as low as 26579.14 so far. The decline then slowed as seen in 10-min chart. But that shouldn’t be taken as indication of bottoming yet. A break above today’s high (the lower end of the gap) at 27102.14 is needed to be the first sign of stabilization. Meanwhile, break of 27370.16 support turned resistance is needed to indicate short term bottoming. Otherwise, further fall should be seen to 26537.01 next.

                                    As we noted before, current fall is, for now, seen as the third leg of the consolidation pattern from 29199.35. Break of 26537.01 might be seen as completing a double top reversal pattern. But we believe the key support lies in cluster at 24971.03, which is close to 25000 psychological level, and more importantly 38.2% retracement of 18213.65 to 29199.35 at 25002.81.

                                    This could be the 25000 cluster could be the level to test as reaction to US election results. As long as it holds, rise from 18213.65 should be still in position to resume, probably rather quickly. But sustained break will open up the way for near term bearish reversal.

                                    US oil inventories rose 4.3m barrels, WTI decline in progress for 36

                                      By
                                      ActionForex
                                      -

                                      US commercial crude oil inventories rose 4.3m barrels in the week ending October 23, larger than expectation of 1.5m. At 492.4m barrels, inventories are about 9% above the five year average for this time of year. Gasoline inventories dropped -0.9m barrels. Distillate dropped -4.5m barrels. Propane/propylene rose 100k barrels. Commercial petroleum dropped -3.9m barrels.

                                      WTI crude oil hits as low as 36.92 so far. Fall from 41.62 is still in progress despite stronger than expected but brief recovery earlier in the week. Outlook is unchanged that such fall is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 43.50. Deeper decline should be seen to 35.98/36.50 support zone first. Break will confirm and target 100% projection of 43.50 to 35.98 from 41.62 at 34.10, which is close to 34.36 structural support. For now, we don’t expect a firm break there.

                                      BoC stands pat, no rate hike until into 2023

                                        By
                                        ActionForex
                                        -

                                        BOC kept overnight rate unchanged at effective lower bound of 0.25% as widely expected. Rate will be kept there “until into 2023” when economic slack is absorbed to sustain inflation above 2% target.

                                        The QE program is recalibrated to shift towards “longer-term bonds” while total purchases to be lowered to at least CAD 4B a week. The Governing Council judges that “with these combined adjustments, the QE program is providing at least as much monetary stimulus as before.”

                                        Canadian economy’s rebound in employment and GDP was “stronger than expected” and it’s now “transitioning to a more moderate recuperation phase”. Q4 growth is expected to “slow markedly” due to rising coronavirus cases. 2020 GDP is expected to contract around -5.5%, then grow by almost 4% on average in 2021 and 2022. “Considering the likely long-lasting effects of the pandemic, the Bank has revised down its estimate of Canada’s potential growth over the projection horizon.”

                                        CPI is expected “stay below” target “until early 2021″. Core inflation is ” consistent with an economy where demand has fallen by more than supply.”/ Inflation is expected to “remain below target throughout projection horizon.

                                        Full statement here.

                                        In the latest projections in BoC’s monetary summary report, GDP forecast for 2020 was revised up. 2021 and 2022 GDP forecasts are revised down. CPI inflation projections are largely unchanged.

                                        US goods trade deficit narrowed to USD -79.4B, small than expected

                                          By
                                          ActionForex
                                          -

                                          US goods exports for September rose USD 3.2B from August to USD 122.0B. Imports of goods dropped USD -0.5B to USD 201.4B. Goods trade deficit narrowed by -4.5% mom to USD -79.4B, smaller than expectation of USD -85.0B.

                                          Full release here.

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